Technical Talk:GBP/JPY 14-12-2018

GBP/JPY slipping below 143.50 as risk aversion builds for Friday
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 143.92 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 143.92, would call for 144.54 and 144.90.

Comment:
Guppy easing off of Thursday’s gains as risk appetite skews for the week’s end.China’s data miss is sending investors further into safe havens as growth continues to slow for the Asian giant.
GBP/JPY is seeing steady declines in early Friday trading, testing into 143.30 as risk aversion sees investors .stepping back into the safe-haven Yen as Pound traders grow uneasy about the next stages of Brexit.

Risk-off appears to be the flavour of the day for Friday, with the Yen picking up bids across the broader market, fueled by an upswing in Japan’s Tankan data, which showed manufacturing bumping higher than expected,
a welcome showing for the normally-sluggish Japanese economy,
but riskier assets are seeing the wind sucked out of their sails as broader markets remain unsure amidst growing unease about the state of US-China trade relations.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 13-12-2018

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Holds above 200-hour SMA amid cautious trade ahead of ECB.Our preference: long positions above 1.1360 with targets at 1.1400 & 1.1425 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1340 & 1.1325 as targets

Comment:
• Over the one month or so the pair has been oscillating between two-converging trend-lines forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.

• Against the backdrop of the recent fall since late-Sept.,
the contracting wedge constituted toward the formation of as a bearish continuation pattern – Pennant.
• Conversely, the pair seems to have formed a firm base near 200-hour SMA and technical indicators have
been gaining positive traction on the 1-hourly chart.

Technical Talk:XAU/USD 12-12-2018

XAU/USD Testing Final 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level
Our preference: short positions below 1247.50 with targets at 1240.50 & 1237.50 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1247.50 look for further upside with 1251.00 & 1253.00 as targets

Meta description: XAU/USD needs to break below the support trend line and uptrend channel if it wants to confirm the current wave 4 pattern.
Gold (XAU/USD) stopped at the golden ratio 61.8% Fibonacci level,
which is an unusually deep Fib level for a wave4 (blue). The breakout direction will decide about the next trend.

Technical Talk:USD/CAD 11-12-2018

USD/CAD consolidates overnight strong up-move, just above 1.3400 handle
Our preference: long positions above 1.3375 with targets at 1.3440 & 1.3480 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3375 look for further downside with 1.3345 & 1.3295 as targets.

Comment:
• The USD struggles to build on the overnight upsurge and fails to provide any impetus.
• Weaker sentiment around oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.
• Traders now eye US November PPI figures for some short-term opportunities.

The USD/CAD pair was seen consolidating overnight strong upsurge and remained confined in a narrow trading band,
just above the 1.3400 handle.
A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the pair to extend the overnight goodish up-move of nearly
125-pips and led to a subdued/range-bound price action through the Asian session on Tuesday.

The US Dollar struggled to build on its strong rebound on Monday,
supported by the latest Brexit drama-led sell-off in the British Pound, and failed to provide any fresh bullish impetus.

However, a mildly softer tone around crude oil prices,
which tend to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, helped limit any immediate downfall.

Looking at the technical picture, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as consolidation phase and hence,
a fresh leg of an up-move, back closer to last week’s near 18-month tops, remains a distinct possibility.

Moving ahead, today’s US economic docket, highlighting the release of Nov. PPI figures,
will now be looked upon for some fresh trading impetus later during the early North-American session.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 1.3445 region,
above which the pair seems all set to aim towards reclaiming the key 1.3500 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the 1.3380 level now seems to protect the immediate downside,
which if broken might prompt some additional long-unwinding trade and accelerate the slide
further towards the 1.3325-20 region en-route the 1.3300 handle.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 07-12-2018

EUR/USD Outlook: Initial bullish signal on probe above triangle’s upper boundary but US jobs data would be a key driver Our preference: short @ 1.1380 with targets @ 1.1330 & 1.1310 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.1360 look for further upside with 1.1380 & 1.1410 as targets.

The Euro holds slightly positive tone in early Friday’s trading and moved above trendline resistance (bear-trendline drawn off 1.1815 high, currently at 1.1364).
Bullish close on Thursday after triple-Doji and close above 30SMA (1.1359) were positive signals, although long shadows of Thursday’s daily candle warn that the pair still lacks strength for stronger and sustainable action.
Repeated failure to close above Fibo barrier at 1.1393 (61.8% of 1.1472/1.1267)
despite spikes to 1.1418/12 (Tue/Thu) could be limiting factor, along with strengthening bearish momentum on daily chart.
Weekly close above triangle’s upper boundary would provide initial bullish signal, which needs confirmation on close above 1.1393 Fibo barrier. This would open way towards 1.1423/40 (Fibo 76.4% / 55SMA) and generate fresh bullish signal on break. Initial negative signal could be expected on break below converged 10/20 SMA’s (1.1347) and higher base (1.1320) that would unmask triangle support line (1.1302). German Industrial Production fell well below expectations in Oct (-0.5% vs 0.3% f/c), with EU GDP (Q3 y/y 1.7% f/c vs 1.7% prev / q/q 0.2% f/c vs 0.2% prev) being the highlight of the European session.
Top event today is release of US labor data. US Non-Farm Payrolls are forecasted to rise by 200K in Nov vs 250K previous month,
while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to tick higher (Nov 0.3% f/c vs Oct 0.2%). Releases at/above forecasts would confirm strength of US labor market and boost dollar, fueling hopes for Fed rate hike in December, as markets reduced bets on rate hikes in 2019, on signals of global growth slowdown and potential escalation of US/China trade conflict.

Technical Talk:USD/JPY 06-12-2018

USD/JPY stays in red below 113 ahead of US data dump
Our preference: long positions above 112.75 with targets at 113.25 & 113.50 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 112.75 look for further downside with 112.55 & 112.30 as targets..

Comment:
Escalating tensions between China and the U.S. weighs on sentiment on Wednesday.US Dollar Index clings to modest gains above 97.
Coming up: ADP employment change and trade balance data from the U.S.
After staying under pressure during the Asian session,
the USD/JPY pair recovered above the 113 but failed to preserve its momentum and dropped back into the negative territory ahead of macroeconomic data releases from the United States. As of writing, the pair was trading at 112.80, losing 0.35% on a daily basis.

Earlier today, reports of Chinese tech-giant Huawei’s CFO, who got arrested in Canada, getting extradited to the U.S. to face charges of violating Iran sanctions caused concerns amid escalating political tensions between the
U.S. and China just when two countries agreed to a ceasefire on trade war for 90 days. Major European equity indexes suffered heavy losses to reflect the risk-off mood with Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE both losing more than 2% on the day.

Technical Talk:USD/JPY 04-12-2018

USD/JPY Analysis: Support at 112.60/112.30, resistance at 113.20/113.70
Our preference: short positions below 113.35 with targets at 113.00 & 112.75 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 113.35 look for further upside with 113.50 & 113.70 as targets.

Comment:
01. Equities lost the relief momentum, reversing Monday’s gains.
02. US Treasury yields are sharply down, reviving concerns about a flattening yield curve.

The American dollar suffered during Asian trading hours as the trade war headlines’ positive effect on equities faded with most indexes falling into the red in the region, also negative in Europe. US government bond yields are on franc decline, with the yield for the 10-year Treasury note currently at 2.95%, bringing back concerns about a yield-curve inversion, usually seen as a sign of an economic slowdown coming.

The greenback was further weighed by positive political headlines coming from Europe, which boosted the EUR and the GBP. Italian authorities are said to be working on adjusting the 2019 budget to avoid EU sanctions,
with up to 54 amendments being under discussion. As for the UK,
the European Court of Justice determined that the UK may revoke Brexit unilaterally. There’s little in the macroeconomic front that could interrupt sentiment-related trading, as the US will publish a minor regional index,
while a couple of Fed speakers will be out during the American afternoon.

Technical Talk: USDJPY 03-12-2018

USDJPY Breaking Lower; S&P500 Turning For A Gap
Our preference: short positions below 113.65 with targets at 113.30 & 113.20 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 113.65 look for further upside with 113.85 & 114.05 as targets

Comment:
tocks also gaped lower, but what is interesting is that despite higher stocks USDJPY is weakening at the moment,
which tells us how weak USD really is today. Technically speaking,
we see USDJPY breaking out of minor corrective upward channel which suggests a continuation towards 113.00.

JPY can also move much higher if we consider that stocks can turn south to fill a gap. E-mini S&P500 has it around 2765.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 30-11-2019

EUR/USD Analysis: Support at 1.1345/1.1300, resistance at 1.1400/1.1430
Our preference: short positions below 1.1395 with targets at 1.1340 & 1.1310 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.1395 look for further upside with 1.1420 & 1.1445 as targets.

Comment:
EUR/USD has ticked lower in the Thursday session, after posting slight losses on Wednesday. Currently,
the pair is trading at 1.1378, down 0.13% on the day. On the release front,
German retail sales fell to a 3-month low, with a reading of -0.3%. This was well off the estimate of 0.4%. In the eurozone, CPI is expected to edge lower to 2.1% and the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 8.0%. In the U.S., there are no major indicators. Chicago PMI is expected to edge up to 58.6 points. As well, the G-20 begins a 2-day summit in Argentina.

German numbers have been sagging, and there was more grim news on Friday, as retail sales posted its first decline since July.
Consumers are holding tighter to the purse strings, which is hurting economic growth. Unsurprisingly, consumer confidence softened in November – the reading of 10.4 points was its lowest level since May 2017.

Technical Talk:NZD/USD 29-11-2018

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: 200-day MA is again capping upside
Our preference: long positions above 0.6835 with targets at 0.6910 & 0.6935 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.6835 look for further downside with 0.6820 & 0.6800 as targets.

Powell’s dovish comments and the resulting USD sell-off pushed the NZD/USD pair above the falling channel hurdle yesterday.
The bull breakout indicates the path of least resistance is to the higher side.
The 200-day moving average (MA) hurdle, however, is putting brakes on the rally for the second time in two weeks.