AUD/USD rebounds from 2-week low, lacks follow-through
Our preference: short positions below 0.6850 with targets at 0.6825 & 0.6810 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 0.6850 look for further upside with 0.6865 & 0.6875 as targets.
Slightly better Aussie data helped gain some positive traction.
The risk-off mood/US-China trade uncertainty capping gains.
The US CPI and Powell’s testimony eyed for a fresh impetus.
The AUD/USD pair staged a modest rebound from over two-week lows,
albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond mid-0.6800s.
The pair stalled its recent pullback and managed to find some support near
the 0.6830 in reaction to a strong rebound in the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which rose to +4.5% in November as compared to -5.5% recorded in the previous month.
USD/CAD technical analysis: 50-day EMA, 1.3220/25 exert downside pressure
Our preference: long positions above 1.3135 with targets at 1.3175 & 1.3195 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3135 look for further downside with 1.3120 & 1.3105 as targets.
USD/CAD bounces off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of May-July downpour.
1.3100 holds the key to October lows, 1.3000 round-figure.
The USD/CAD pair’s recent pullback from 23.6% Fibonacci retracement falls short to conquer 50-day EMA and near-term key resistance-confluence. The quote seesaws around 1.3160 during Wednesday’s Asian session.
Should prices follow static conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) and extends recovery, 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.3193 seems to be the key for intra-day buyers,
a break of which could push them to confront 1.3220/25 region including 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
GBP/USD technical analysis: Pivots around 200-hour EMA, moves little post-UK PMI Our preference: long positions above 1.2875 with targets at 1.2920 & 1.2940 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.2875 look for further downside with 1.2860 & 1.2845 as targets.
Bulls struggled to capitalize on the early uptick to levels just above 1.2900 handle.The downside remains cushioned following the release of upbeat UK services PMI.
The GBP/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday uptick to levels just above the 1.2900 handle and refreshed session lows in the last hour.
Bulls showed some resilience at lower levels following the release of stronger UK services PMI for October, albeit lacked any strong conviction.
The pair has been pivoting around 200-hour SMA since the US session on Monday and thus, warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bets.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have just started gaining negative momentum and support prospects for further depreciating move.
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and seemed to largely offset the bearish outlook, rather attract some dip-buying interest.
The neutral set-up hasn’t been supportive of any firm direction,
making it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before placing fresh directional bets.
NZD/USD keeps the upside bias, now targets 0.6500 – UOB
Our preference: under pressure below 0.6459.
Alternative scenario: above 0.6459, look for 0.6479 and 0.6491.
NZD/USD could attempt a move to the 0.6480/0.6500 area in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.
24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday, “barring a move below 0.6390,
NZD could advance further even though the major 0.6450 level is likely out of reach for today”.
NZD subsequently dipped to 0.6404 before surging briefly above 0.6450 (high of 0.6456).
The advance is running ahead of itself and further sustained NZD strength is not expected for today.
NZD is more likely to consolidate its gains and trade sideways at these higher levels,
expected to- be within a 0.6410/0.6450 range”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 0.6410) that “the odds for a break of the September’s peak of 0.6450 have increased”. NZD subsequently rose to 0.6456 before retreating quickly.
While overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to 1 to 2 days of consolidation first, the outlook for NZD is still positive and a test of the strong 0.6480/0.6500 resistance would not be surprising.
On the downside, only a break of 0.6390 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.6370) would suggest our view is wrong”
GBP/USD Forecast: Halloween Party set to continue thanks to the Fed and Farage Our preference: long positions above 1.2935 with targets at 1.2985 & 1.3005 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.2935 look for further downside with 1.2895 & 1.2870 as targets.
GBP/USD has been extending its gains after the Fed’s decision.
Speculation about the UK elections is set to determine the next moves.
Thursday’s technical chart is pointing to further gains.
Trick or treat? Brexiteers may feel tricked on Halloween – which was supposed to be Brexit Day – the third one. GBP/USD is on the rise, but the main driver is the US Federal Reserve rather than any UK event.
The Fed cut interest rates for the third time as expected and signaled a pause.
The US Dollar advanced at first, but then changed course and fell,
as Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the bar for raising rates is high.
The bank would like to see a significant rise in inflation before hiking,
while the threshold for cutting again seems lower.
EUR/USD Further upside in lost traction – UOB
Our preference: short positions below 1.1132 with targets at 1.1107 & 1.1097 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.1132 look for further upside with 1.1142 & 1.1157 as targets.
FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the bullish outlook on EUR/USD appears to have lost some momentum
despite a test of 1.1180 still remains on the cards.
24-hour view: “EUR traded in a relatively narrow range between 1.1074 and 1.1107 before ending the day slightly higher at 1.1098 (+0.18%). The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and EUR could continue to trade sideways for today, likely between 1.1080 and 1.1125”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR dipped to 1.1071 on Friday (25 Oct),
just one pip above our ‘strong support’ indicated in our last update on 23 Oct (spot at 1.1130). The prospect for further EUR strength has clearly diminished but there is still a slim chance that EUR could muster one more push high towards last week’s top near 1.1180. However, a break of 1.1070 would suggest EUR could trade sideways for a period”.
USD/CHF trades with modest losses, but holds above 0.9900 handle
Our preference: short positions below 0.9930 with targets at 0.9890 & 0.9880 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 0.9930 look for further upside with 0.9945 & 0.9960 as targets.
The prevalent cautions mood underpinned CHF’s safe-haven demand.
The USD remained on the defensive amid firming Fed rate cut expectations.
The downside remained limited amid a modest uptick in the US bond yields.
The USD/CHF pair edged lower on Friday and eroded a major part of the previous session positive move,
albeit managed to find some support ahead of the 0.9900 handle.
Having climbed to over one-week tops, around the 0.9930 region, the pair witnessed a modest pullback and for now,
seems to have snapped four consecutive days of winning streak. Reviving safe-haven demand, amid a softer mood around equity markets,
underpinned the Swiss Franc and was seen as one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the major.
USD/CHF- Murrey Math Lines
Our preference: long positions above 0.9890 with targets at 0.9920 & 0.9935 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.9890 look for further downside with 0.9880 & 0.9870 as targets.
SD/CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is consolidating between 5/8 and 3/8. In this case, the price is expected to test 5/8, rebound from it, and then resume falling to reach the support at 3/8. However,
this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 5/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards 6/8.
USD/CAD trims losses as Canadian TV projects a win for the incumbent government Our preference: short positions below 1.3100 with targets at 1.3065 & 1.3050 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3100 look for further upside with 1.3125 & 1.3145 as targets.
USD/CAD is trimming gains on reports calling a victory for Canada’s PM Trudeau. The CAD may come under pressure if Trudeau forms a minority government with NDP’s support. The USD/CAD pair is recovering losses on reports stating that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to win the second term.
The currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a three-month low of 1.3071 earlier today.
Canadian TV, CBC, is suggesting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to secure a second term, although it is unclear whether he will be able to command an outright majority or will have to rely on other parties to govern.
A minority government supported by the anti-pipeline New Democratic Party (NDP) would be bad news for Canada’s energy sector.
The Canadian Dollar, therefore, may come under pressure if Trudeau ends up forming a minority government with NDP’s support.
NZD/USD reclaims 0.6400 handle, over one-month tops
Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 0.6392 is support.
Alternative scenario: below 0.6392, expect 0.6372 and 0.6360.
The prevalent USD selling bias helped regain positive traction on Monday.
The recent optimism over a partial US-China trade deal remains supportive.
The NZD/USD pair climbed to over one-month tops in the last hour,
with bulls now looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.6400 handle.
The pair added to its recent goodish recovery move from multi-year lows and continued gaining positive traction for the third consecutive session on Monday in the wake of some follow-through selling around the US Dollar.
Persistent USD selling remained supportiveDespite a goodish intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, supported by improving global risk sentiment,
the USD bulls remained on the defensive amid expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates again in October.
This coupled with recent optimism over phase one deal between the world’s two largest economies remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding perceived riskier currencies – including the New Zealand Dollar.
In absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, it will not be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or opt to take some profits off the table on the first day of a new trading week.