EUR/USD Current Dynamics and Recommendations
Our preference: as long as 1.6303 is support look for 1.6453.
Alternative scenario: below 1.6303, expect 1.6248 and 1.6215
EUR / USD failed to develop an upward correction above the resistance level of 1.1310 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
On Wednesday, EUR / USD resumed its decline after the publication at the beginning of the American session of positive
macro statistics from the United States, indicating a modest, but still rising inflation in the United States.
As the US Department of Labor reported on Wednesday,
consumer prices in May increased compared to April, but less significantly than expected (in annual terms,
+1.8% against the forecast of +1.9% and +2.0% in April). The base consumer price index,
which does not take into account food and energy, rose by 2% compared with May 2018, compared with the expected growth of 2.1%.
NZD/USD Analysis: Breaches junior channel
Our preference: rebound towards 0.6615.
Alternative scenario: below 0.6559, expect 0.6538 and 0.6526.
The New Zealand Dollar has continued to edge lower in a narrow descending channel pattern against the US Dollar.
The currency pair breached the upper boundary of the channel pattern at 0.6576 during the morning hours of Wednesday’s trading session.
Given that a breakout had occurred, it is likely that the NZD/USD
exchange rate will aim for a resistance level formed by the 100-hour simple moving average at 0.6616 during the following trading session.
NZD/USD inches lower toward 0.66 on USD recovery
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.6638 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 0.6638, look for 0.6659 and 0.6671
Sharp rebound in 10-year US T-bond yield helps USD recover last week’s losses.
Stronger greenback weighs on the pair.
Coming up: JOLTS job openings from US and manufacturing sales from NZ.
After adding more than 100 pips last week, the NZD/USD reversed its direction on Monday pressured by the broad USD strength.
As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6615, losing 0.75% on a daily basis.
The decisive upsurge witnessed in the 10-year Treasury bond yields on the back of Trump administration reaching a
deal with Mexico and suspending tariffs helped the greenback start the new week on a firm footing. The US Dollar Index,
which tracks the dollar’s value against a basket of six major currencies, recovered from the multi-month low that it set last Friday at
96.46 and was last seen adding 0.36% at 96.91 while the 10-year T-bond yield was up 2.75%.
USD/CAD rebound from 2-week lows, lacks follow-through
Our preference: short positions below 1.3465 with targets at 1.3395 & 1.3370 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3465 look for further upside with 1.3485 & 1.3520 as targets
• The USD finds some support amid a goodish bounce in the US bond yields.
• Weaker Oil prices undermine Loonie and helped limit any further downside.
• Traders now eye Powell’s scheduled speech for some meaningful impetus.
The USD/CAD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen
oscillating in a narrow trading band near two-week lows.
The pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European trading session on Tuesday,
though a combination of supporting factors helped limit any further downside, at least for the time being.
The US Dollar attracted some buying interest amid a goodish rebound in the US Treasury bond yields and
was seen as one of the key factors lending some support.
NZD/USD Break above 0.6559 needed to validate falling wedge breakout
Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 0.6547 is support.
Alternative scenario: below 0.6547, expect 0.6526 and 0.6514.
NZD/USD witnessed a falling wedge breakout on May 24 only to fall back to 0.65 on May 30.
As a result, a daily close above 0.6559 (May 27 high) is needed to validate the wedge breakout.
NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6543, representing 0.14% gains at press time.
The pair had closed at 0.6550 on May 24, confirming a falling wedge breakout –
a bearish-to-bullish trend change – but topped out at 0.6559 on May 27 and fell back to 0.6494 on May 30, invalidating the bullish breakout.
As a result, the pair needs to close above 0.6559 (May 27 high).
That would establish bullish higher highs and higher lows pattern and revive the falling wedge breakout confirmed on May 24.
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 29 May 2019 – Where Next For Prices?
Our preference: short positions below 58.60 with targets at 57.50 & 57.00 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 58.60 look for further upside with 59.10 & 59.55 as targets
Oil prices fell by around 1% on Wednesday on concerns the Sino-U.S. trade war could trigger a global economic downturn,
but relatively tight supply amid OPEC output cuts and political tensions in the Middle East offered some support.
Prices have been supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) since the start of the year, and by political tensions in the Middle East.
OPEC and some allies including Russia are due to meet on June 25 and 26 to discuss output policy.
Meanwhile speculators cut their net long positions in U.S. Crude futures and options again in the latest week.
Where are commodity prices heading next? Watch Phil Carr at The Gold & Silver Club review Crude Oil with the latest price forecast
10 Year US Notes Points Lower; and GBPJPY Can Stop Its Weakness!
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 139.13 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 139.13, look for 139.74 and 140.11.
In risk-off mode commodity currencies and XXX/JPY pairs will benefit,
especially if 10 year US notes are headed down based on 1h wave count which is pointing down for wave C).
In such case even very weak GBPJPY would stabilize, but after wave five which is around the corner.
NZD/USD moves sideways near mid-0.65s in choppy trading day
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.6563 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 0.6563, would call for 0.6584 and 0.6596.
Empty economic calendar paves the way for subdued trading action.
Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. keeps volume down.
RBNZ to publish Financial Stability Report later this week.
The NZD/USD pair closed the previous week with small gains and started the new week in a calm manner and
has been moving sideways in a tight 20-pip range since. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 0.6548.
The U.S. markets will be closed due to Memorial Day holiday and it also suggests that President
Trump is unlikely to tweet about the trade conflict with China. The lack of macroeconomic data releases and
political developments in the second half of the day is likely to force the pair to continue to move sideways.
While speaking to reporters during his visit to Japan, President Trump said that he thought that the would have a deal
with China sometime in the future but added that they were not ready to do it yet.
Later this week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be releasing its Financial Stability Report and Governor
Orr will be delivering his remarks on the report. On the other hand, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index and the
Consumer Board Consumer Confidence Survey will be featured in the U.S. economic docket on Tuesday.
EUR/CAD Euro gains against CAD on BoC dovishness
Our preference: eye 1.4955.
Alternative scenario: above 1.5099, look for 1.5152 and 1.5184
EUR/CAD is trading just below its 100 SMA as the pair has been ranging since February.
EUR/CAD spiked to 1.5140 as the Bank of Canada was dovish.
XAU/USD Strengthens above 100-hour SMA, now eyeing a move beyond 23.6% Fibo./weekly tops
Our preference: short positions Up 1275.50 with targets at 1283.50 & 1294.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1276.50 look for further upside with 1279.00 & 1282.00 as targets.
• Gold regained positive traction on Thursday and continued scaling higher through the mid-European session,
retesting the overnight swing high near the $1277-78 supply zone.
• The mentioned region coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the $1303-$1269 recent slide and should
now act as a key pivotal point for any further near-term recovery.
Meanwhile, the intraday positive move has now lifted the precious metal above 100-hour SMA for the first time in around a week
and support prospects for additional gains amid a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade.