Our preference: short positions below 111.20 with targets at 110.95 & 110.80 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 111.20 look for further upside with 111.35 & 111.50 as targets.
A bounce in Treasury yields and equities helped USD/JPY recover the 111.00 mark.
First-tier data released Wednesday failed to clear uncertainty.
The USD/JPY pair recovered above 111.00 and trades near a daily high of 111.16,
finding support in the better performance of equities during the Asian session ad a bounce in US Treasury yields ahead of the opening.
Following the flood of first-tier news release Wednesday, most major pairs are little changed, as the uncertainty hasn’t been cleared as expected.
Both, the ECB and the Fed offered dovish statements, Brexit has been once again delayed, this time to the end of October,
while US inflation remains subdued and EU growth depressed, backing the central banks’ decisions. Japan released overnight March Money Supply,
which increased by 2.4% YoY. The US macroeconomic calendar will include today the March Producer Price Index,
with the core readings seen up by 0.2% MoM and by 2.4% YoY, and weekly unemployment claims for the week ended April 5.
The 4 hours chart for the pair shows that the price is finding resistance around a flat 200 SMA, while the 20 SMA maintains its bearish slope, nearing the larger one from above,
making of the 111.20 area the immediate resistance. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have recovered further within negative levels,
with modest upward slopes that fall short of indicating buying interest. The bearish case would likely resume on a break below 110.75, the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run,
while bulls will take over if the pair manages to advance beyond 111.55.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Turning bearish again, break below ascending trend-channel awaited
Our preference: long positions above 1.3060 with targets at 1.3120 & 1.3150 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3060 look for further downside with 1.3025 & 1.2990 as targets.
• The pair had good two-way price moves since the beginning of this week and has been
oscillating in an ascending trend-channel formation on hourly charts.
• However, the fact that the pair remains well below important intraday moving averages –
50, 100 & 200-hour SMAs, points to increasing near-term selling bias.
• Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have just started gaining negative
traction and add credence to the bearish outlook amid the recent Brexit chaos.
• A convincing break below the trend-channel support will confirm a near-term bearish
breakdown and accelerate the slide towards the key 1.30 psychological mark.
USD/JPY Completing Bullish ABC Zigzag Pattern at 112?
Our preference: long positions above 111.15 with targets at 111.55 & 111.75 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 111.15 look for further downside with 110.85 & 110.60 as targets.
The USD/JPY is approaching a key resistance trend line (red) and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of wave X vs W (pink).
A bearish bounce would confirm the potential end of the ABC (purple) zigzag pattern.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Looks to extend the momentum beyond 0.7100 mark/ 100-hour SMA Our preference: long positions above 0.7075 with targets at 0.7110 & 0.7130 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 0.7075 look for further downside with 0.7065 & 0.7055 as targets..
• The pair once again managed to find decent support and staged a goodish bounce from a support marked by a near three-week-old ascending trend-line.
• Slightly oversold conditions on the 1-hourly chart prompted some short-covering bounce and assisted the pair to reclaim the 0.7100 round figure mark.
• The mentioned handle coincides with 100-hour SMA and should act as a key trigger for bullish traders, supporting prospects for additional intraday gains.
• Oscillators on the 1-hourly chart have also started gaining positive traction and further add credence to the pair’s short-term constructive outlook.
• However, technical indicators on 4-hourly/daily charts held in the neutral territory and are yet to catch up with the positive move, warranting some caution.
AUD/USD technical analysis: the pair moved into a bearish zone
Our preference: short positions below 0.7095 with targets at 0.7060 & 0.7040 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 0.7095 look for further upside with 0.7115 & 0.7135 as targets.
The Aussie dollar declined heavily after it was rejected near the 0.7165 level against the
US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair traded below the 0.7120 and 0.7100 support levels to move into a bearish zone.
There was even a close below the 0.7100 level and 50 hourly simple moving average. A swing low was formed at
0.7065 on FXOpen UK and later the pair started an upside correction. However, there is a strong resistance near the 0.7080 level and a bearish trend line on the hourly chart.
It seems like the pair might climb above the trend line to test the 0.7090 resistance and the 50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7114 high to 0.7065 low.
Overall, the AUD/USD pair might correct higher in the short term, but it is likely to face sellers near 0.7090 or 0.7100.
Brexit: Dutch PM Rutte says EU will grant extension if MPs do their bit, GBP/USD remains at low ground
Our preference: short positions below 1.3150 with targets at 1.3100 & 1.3070 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3150 look for further upside with 1.3250 & 1.3300 as targets
Mark Rutte, the PM of the Netherlands, said that the EU is ready to grant the Brexit short extension that
PM May seeks if British Members of Parliament do their bit.
He says that the problems are not due to May but others playing party politics.
Asked about what happens if Parliament rejects the deal for the third time,
he only says that the EU will need to assess the situation.
EU leaders are meeting for a summit in Brussels to discuss Brexit and other topics.
A decision may have to wait until the very last minute.
GBP/USD trades around 1.3130, slightly off the daily lows at 1.3105.
XAGUSD (Silver) – Limited upside
Our preference: short positions below 15.3800 with targets at 15.2000 & 15.1000 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 15.3800 look for further upside with 15.4400 & 15.5300 as targets
GBP/USD Analysis: Surges to R2 at 1.3355
Our preference: long positions below 1.3254 with targets at 1.3170 & 1.3120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3254 look for further upside with 1.3291 & 1.3334 as targets.
During Thursday’s trading session, the British Pound traded sideways to stay at 1.3200. On Friday morning,
the rate was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to trade at the 1.3264 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will keep surging towards the weekly
R2 at the 1.3355 mark.
It is expected that the rate will end today’s trading session at the 1.3300 level.
GBP/USD rebounds from 1.3200 neighborhood, focus remains on Article 50 extension voteOur preference: long positions above 1.3185 with targets at 1.3290 & 1.3340 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3185 look for further downside with 1.3125 & 1.3065 as targets.
• Intraday bullish spike quickly fizzles out amid confusion over the duration of Article 50 extension.
• Tusk said to push for longer extension; May to opt for short delay if deal approved by March 20.
The GBP/USD pair faded an early European session knee-jerk bullish spike and tumbled to fresh session lows,
closer to the 1.3300 handle in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter.
The pair did get a goodish lift and surged to an intraday high level of 1.3331 in reaction to unconfirmed
news that the DUP is considering to support the government’s deal. The uptick quickly fizzled out,
rather met with some aggressive selling pressure and the pair erased a major part of the overnight
strong gains posted after the UK Parliament voted for a non-binding motion to reject the idea to leave the
European Union without a trade deal.
Despite a vote to reject a no-deal Brexit, confusion over the duration of Article
50 extension was seen as one of the key factors affecting negatively on the British Pound.
The European Council President Donald Tusk was noted saying that he will push for a longer extension and the
UK PM Theresa May emphasized for a short delay if a deal is approved by March 20. Meanwhile,
the UK government spokesman said that May would put her Brexit deal back to the
Parliament for a third vote if she thought it would win support
The bearish pressure now seems to have abated, at least for the time being, and the pair managed to
find decent support just ahead of the 1.3200 round figure mark to recover around 25-30 pips from daily swing lows.
It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any follow-through buying as market
participants now look forward to this week’s final key vote on an extension of the fast-approaching March
29 Brexit deadline
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Intraday bounce remains capped below 200-DMA ahead of US retail salesOur preference: long positions above 111.00 with targets at 111.45 & 111.65 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 111.00 look for further downside with 110.85 & 110.75 as targets
• Despite Friday’s disappointing headline NFP print, the pair managed to defend and regain positive traction from a support
marked by the lower end of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation.
• Technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias but are holding in the neutral territory on the
1-hourly chart and have also started gaining negative traction on the 4-hourly chart.
• Moreover, the fact that the attempted intraday bounce remained below the very important 200-day SMA also
warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the major.
• Traders now look forward to today’s important release of the US monthly retail sales data, which might influence the USD
price dynamics and eventually provide some meaningful trading impetus.
• Sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle might assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 112.00 handle,
though a decisive break below the trend-channel would mark a fresh bearish breakdown.