Technical Talk:EUR/USD 21-12-2018

EUR/USD Forecast 2019: At the starting line of a long and bumpy road
Our preference: EURUSD has made all bull candles on daily chart in the last 3 trading days This is a good news for buyers who has not open a position yet.
Assuming ABC wave is going to happen soon.
Now B is still not confirmed and waiting for signal which could be our entry to join the trend again. C or targets could rise up to 1.153-1.163.

Central banks and politics could cause turmoil, but no longer can spur growth.
Growth is far worse than what the numbers show, recession at risk of materializing.
Two things dominated the financial world this 2018: political turmoil and fears of slowing economic growth.
The first was quite foreseeable with Brexit and Trump´s victory in the US but the second dawned on markets like a cold shower in the second half of the year.
It was not far ago when EU’s growth hit record highs, according to Markit,
with business activity shrinking to its lowest pace of growth in over four years in December.
It was back in March, when the Fed pulled the trigger for the first time,
that markets players were rushing into the greenback pricing in a long-lasting cycle of rate hikes amid solid economic developments in the US.
Even the ECB was confident enough to announce the end of QE. But when and why things took such turn to the worst?

EUR/USD Technical outlook
Following a strong rally in January that extended into the first week of February taking the pair up to 1.2554, it entered a selling spiral that found a bottom in November at 1.1215. Now trading roughly 200 pips’ above this last,
the pair has managed to close only one month with some relevant gains in its way down. December seems poised also to end positively, but with the pair at current levels, a relevant recovery is still out of the picture. The 23.6% retracement of the yearly decline comes at 1.1530,
while the 38.2% retracement of the same slump is located at 1.1725,
which means that the pair would need to escalate 300 pips and reach levels not seen since last August to have chances of a more sustainable recovery. The 61.8% retracement of the same rally comes at 1.2040.

Technical Talk:CADJPY 20-12-2018

CADJPY Analyis – Good Sell Signal
Our preference: long positions below 83.04 with targets at 82.55 & 82.13 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 83.34 look for further upside with 84.07 & 84.46 as targets.

This analysis is for traders who do not care much about the instrument they’re trading on.
Many market participants believe that technical setups work on any instrument and they go beyond the major pairs,
gold, and oil. This analysis is about CADJPY, where we see a classic sell signal.

The pair has been in a healthy uptrend since March and the price movements created an upward channel formation. The beginning of December brought us a breakout of the lower line of this pattern (blue). In addition to this dynamic support, the price also broke the horizontal one (green), which was made from the monthly lows from October and November. The price has been advancing slightly higher since the 6th of December, which can be considered as typical price action movement aiming to test the broken supports as the closest resistances. On Friday, the test ended with a nice bounce, which may be perceived as a bearish factor. I would be more cautious here and I would wait for the breakout of the black line first. That is a dynamic support of the mid-term correction and the breakout of that line should bring us a proper sell signal.

As for the target, the first one is on the orange line, which represents the lows from August and September. We should get there relatively easy if we do see a drop. If the price breaks the orange line it could spell real trouble for buyers,
but currently, this is still up in the air.

Technical Talk:GBP/USD 19-12-2018

GBP/USD forecast: The British Pound rising slowly, but Brexit concern remains a barrier.Our preference: short positions below 1.2677 with targets at 1.2627 & 1.2564 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.2677 look for further upside with 1.2719 & 1.2772 as targets.

The GBP/USD pair is continuing to go higher in early Wednesday action due to a softening US Dollar. The Brexit concern is set to idle through the Christmas holidays, but UK PM Theresa May will be seeing a large January to kick off 2019.

Technical Talk:AUDUSD 18-12-2018

Australian jobs report preview: A healthy labor market may not be enough for AUD/USD.Our preference: long positions above 0.7150 with targets at 0.7300 & 0.7400 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.7150 look for further downside with 0.7035 & 0.6960 as targets.

Australia is expected to show a more modest increase in jobs in November.
The composition of jobs matters almost like the headline number.
The reaction in AUD/USD depends heavily on the Fed decision.
Australia publishes its jobs report for November on Thursday, 00:30 GMT.
The Land Down Under enjoyed a robust rate of jobs growth in October: no less then 32.8K positions were added to the economy,
exceeding what had been expected and lifting the Australian Dollar.

Other figures shined as well. The Unemployment Rate dropped to the round level of 5%, and most importantly, the composition of full-time and part-time jobs was favorable. The economy gained 42.3K full-time positions and lost 9.5K part-time ones.

Technical Talk:GBP/JPY 14-12-2018

GBP/JPY slipping below 143.50 as risk aversion builds for Friday
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 143.92 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 143.92, would call for 144.54 and 144.90.

Guppy easing off of Thursday’s gains as risk appetite skews for the week’s end.China’s data miss is sending investors further into safe havens as growth continues to slow for the Asian giant.
GBP/JPY is seeing steady declines in early Friday trading, testing into 143.30 as risk aversion sees investors .stepping back into the safe-haven Yen as Pound traders grow uneasy about the next stages of Brexit.

Risk-off appears to be the flavour of the day for Friday, with the Yen picking up bids across the broader market, fueled by an upswing in Japan’s Tankan data, which showed manufacturing bumping higher than expected,
a welcome showing for the normally-sluggish Japanese economy,
but riskier assets are seeing the wind sucked out of their sails as broader markets remain unsure amidst growing unease about the state of US-China trade relations.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 13-12-2018

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Holds above 200-hour SMA amid cautious trade ahead of ECB.Our preference: long positions above 1.1360 with targets at 1.1400 & 1.1425 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1340 & 1.1325 as targets

• Over the one month or so the pair has been oscillating between two-converging trend-lines forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart.

• Against the backdrop of the recent fall since late-Sept.,
the contracting wedge constituted toward the formation of as a bearish continuation pattern – Pennant.
• Conversely, the pair seems to have formed a firm base near 200-hour SMA and technical indicators have
been gaining positive traction on the 1-hourly chart.

Technical Talk:XAU/USD 12-12-2018

XAU/USD Testing Final 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level
Our preference: short positions below 1247.50 with targets at 1240.50 & 1237.50 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1247.50 look for further upside with 1251.00 & 1253.00 as targets

Meta description: XAU/USD needs to break below the support trend line and uptrend channel if it wants to confirm the current wave 4 pattern.
Gold (XAU/USD) stopped at the golden ratio 61.8% Fibonacci level,
which is an unusually deep Fib level for a wave4 (blue). The breakout direction will decide about the next trend.

Technical Talk:USD/CAD 11-12-2018

USD/CAD consolidates overnight strong up-move, just above 1.3400 handle
Our preference: long positions above 1.3375 with targets at 1.3440 & 1.3480 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3375 look for further downside with 1.3345 & 1.3295 as targets.

• The USD struggles to build on the overnight upsurge and fails to provide any impetus.
• Weaker sentiment around oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.
• Traders now eye US November PPI figures for some short-term opportunities.

The USD/CAD pair was seen consolidating overnight strong upsurge and remained confined in a narrow trading band,
just above the 1.3400 handle.
A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the pair to extend the overnight goodish up-move of nearly
125-pips and led to a subdued/range-bound price action through the Asian session on Tuesday.

The US Dollar struggled to build on its strong rebound on Monday,
supported by the latest Brexit drama-led sell-off in the British Pound, and failed to provide any fresh bullish impetus.

However, a mildly softer tone around crude oil prices,
which tend to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, helped limit any immediate downfall.

Looking at the technical picture, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as consolidation phase and hence,
a fresh leg of an up-move, back closer to last week’s near 18-month tops, remains a distinct possibility.

Moving ahead, today’s US economic docket, highlighting the release of Nov. PPI figures,
will now be looked upon for some fresh trading impetus later during the early North-American session.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 1.3445 region,
above which the pair seems all set to aim towards reclaiming the key 1.3500 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the 1.3380 level now seems to protect the immediate downside,
which if broken might prompt some additional long-unwinding trade and accelerate the slide
further towards the 1.3325-20 region en-route the 1.3300 handle.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 07-12-2018

EUR/USD Outlook: Initial bullish signal on probe above triangle’s upper boundary but US jobs data would be a key driver Our preference: short @ 1.1380 with targets @ 1.1330 & 1.1310 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.1360 look for further upside with 1.1380 & 1.1410 as targets.

The Euro holds slightly positive tone in early Friday’s trading and moved above trendline resistance (bear-trendline drawn off 1.1815 high, currently at 1.1364).
Bullish close on Thursday after triple-Doji and close above 30SMA (1.1359) were positive signals, although long shadows of Thursday’s daily candle warn that the pair still lacks strength for stronger and sustainable action.
Repeated failure to close above Fibo barrier at 1.1393 (61.8% of 1.1472/1.1267)
despite spikes to 1.1418/12 (Tue/Thu) could be limiting factor, along with strengthening bearish momentum on daily chart.
Weekly close above triangle’s upper boundary would provide initial bullish signal, which needs confirmation on close above 1.1393 Fibo barrier. This would open way towards 1.1423/40 (Fibo 76.4% / 55SMA) and generate fresh bullish signal on break. Initial negative signal could be expected on break below converged 10/20 SMA’s (1.1347) and higher base (1.1320) that would unmask triangle support line (1.1302). German Industrial Production fell well below expectations in Oct (-0.5% vs 0.3% f/c), with EU GDP (Q3 y/y 1.7% f/c vs 1.7% prev / q/q 0.2% f/c vs 0.2% prev) being the highlight of the European session.
Top event today is release of US labor data. US Non-Farm Payrolls are forecasted to rise by 200K in Nov vs 250K previous month,
while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to tick higher (Nov 0.3% f/c vs Oct 0.2%). Releases at/above forecasts would confirm strength of US labor market and boost dollar, fueling hopes for Fed rate hike in December, as markets reduced bets on rate hikes in 2019, on signals of global growth slowdown and potential escalation of US/China trade conflict.

Technical Talk:USD/JPY 06-12-2018

USD/JPY stays in red below 113 ahead of US data dump
Our preference: long positions above 112.75 with targets at 113.25 & 113.50 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 112.75 look for further downside with 112.55 & 112.30 as targets..

Escalating tensions between China and the U.S. weighs on sentiment on Wednesday.US Dollar Index clings to modest gains above 97.
Coming up: ADP employment change and trade balance data from the U.S.
After staying under pressure during the Asian session,
the USD/JPY pair recovered above the 113 but failed to preserve its momentum and dropped back into the negative territory ahead of macroeconomic data releases from the United States. As of writing, the pair was trading at 112.80, losing 0.35% on a daily basis.

Earlier today, reports of Chinese tech-giant Huawei’s CFO, who got arrested in Canada, getting extradited to the U.S. to face charges of violating Iran sanctions caused concerns amid escalating political tensions between the
U.S. and China just when two countries agreed to a ceasefire on trade war for 90 days. Major European equity indexes suffered heavy losses to reflect the risk-off mood with Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE both losing more than 2% on the day.