EUR/USD Forecast 2019: At the starting line of a long and bumpy road
Our preference: EURUSD has made all bull candles on daily chart in the last 3 trading days This is a good news for buyers who has not open a position yet.
Assuming ABC wave is going to happen soon.
Now B is still not confirmed and waiting for signal which could be our entry to join the trend again. C or targets could rise up to 1.153-1.163.
Central banks and politics could cause turmoil, but no longer can spur growth.
Growth is far worse than what the numbers show, recession at risk of materializing.
Two things dominated the financial world this 2018: political turmoil and fears of slowing economic growth.
The first was quite foreseeable with Brexit and Trump´s victory in the US but the second dawned on markets like a cold shower in the second half of the year.
It was not far ago when EU’s growth hit record highs, according to Markit,
with business activity shrinking to its lowest pace of growth in over four years in December.
It was back in March, when the Fed pulled the trigger for the first time,
that markets players were rushing into the greenback pricing in a long-lasting cycle of rate hikes amid solid economic developments in the US.
Even the ECB was confident enough to announce the end of QE. But when and why things took such turn to the worst?
EUR/USD Technical outlook
Following a strong rally in January that extended into the first week of February taking the pair up to 1.2554, it entered a selling spiral that found a bottom in November at 1.1215. Now trading roughly 200 pips’ above this last,
the pair has managed to close only one month with some relevant gains in its way down. December seems poised also to end positively, but with the pair at current levels, a relevant recovery is still out of the picture. The 23.6% retracement of the yearly decline comes at 1.1530,
while the 38.2% retracement of the same slump is located at 1.1725,
which means that the pair would need to escalate 300 pips and reach levels not seen since last August to have chances of a more sustainable recovery. The 61.8% retracement of the same rally comes at 1.2040.