Technical Talk:EUR/USD 31-01-2019

EUR/USD slips to daily lows near 1.1480 post-EU data
Our preference: long positions above 1.1300 with targets at 1.1625 & 1.1800 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1300 look for further downside with 1.1210 & 1.1025 as targets.

Comment:
The pair loses the grip and retreats to the 1.1480/75 band.
EMU flash GDP expected at 0.2% QoQ in Q4.
Italy expected to slip into recession in Q4.
The correction lower around the European currency is now picking up pace and is dragging EUR/USD to test daily lows in the proximity of 1.1470.

EUR/USD offered on EMU data

Spot came under further selling pressure after Italian preliminary
GDP figures now see the economy entering into recession in the October-December 2018 period. In fact, flash Italian Q4 GDP figures came in at -0.2% QoQ and 0.1% YoY.

In the broader euro bloc, advanced GDP readings see the economy expanding 0.2% inter-quarter and 1.2% over the last twelve months during the last three months of 2018. Additionally, the jobless rate stayed put at 7.9% in December.

The pair gave away part of the overnight advance beyond 1.1500 the figure in the wake of the data releases, although decent support so far emerged in the 1.1480/75 band.

What to look for around EUR/USD

USD-dynamics will drive the sentiment in the pair in the very near term, showing some upside potential in response to the now neutral stance from the Federal Reserve. However, fundamentals in the euro region are not something to write home about and this carries the potential
to weigh on the single currency in the next months. Politics in Euroland will also be a factor to have in mind, with EU parliamentary elections coming up in May and investors closely following the social scenario in France and populist developments in Italy.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.05% at 1.1485 facing the next up barrier at 1.1514 (high Jan.31)
seconded by 1.1515 (50% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1569 (2019 high Jan.9).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1446 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1388 (55-day SMA) en route to
1.1323 (200-week SMA).

Technical Talk:USD/JPY 30-01-2019

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen awaits fresh impulse from the Fed and trade talks
Our preference: short positions below 109.55 with targets at 109.10 & 108.90 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 109.55 look for further upside with 109.70 & 109.95 as targets

Comment:
The USD/JPY trades in mid 109.00s ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) monetary policy meeting and US-China trade talks.The US Federal
Reserve isn’t expected to alter present monetary policy but weigh on
recent “patience” calls and possibly balance sheet reduction.
China could respect demand to increase the US import against likely
turning down calls for restructuring the economy and IPR protection.
The Japanese Yen is trading little changed near 109.45 against the US
Dollar on Wednesday around noon in London as global investors eagerly await
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Powell is expected to confirm data dependency in Fed’s rate-hike trajectory.
The Fed is widely expected to offer no change in its present monetary policy.

The beginning of two-day trade talk between the US and China are also on the trader’s radar.
Amid signs that Trump administration’s demand for structural reforms and strict
investors property rights (IPR) protection could hinder the progress.
Chinese delegation including President’s top aide Liu He will meet the
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Wednesday and Thursday.

In light of the latest calls for ¨patience¨ in future monetary policy path,
the Fed might refrain from supporting its earlier view that required “further” policy normalization. Fed is expected to voice its data dependency instead as recent negative data and absence of few statistics due to the US government shutdown.

At the trade front, the US allegations on China’s smartphone giant
Huawei can spoil the start as Chinese foreign ministry remains firm to
protect the interest of their companies. Additionally,
the US demands for restructuring of world’s second largest economy to best
suit the overseas firms might also hinder the path of progress. On the positive side,
China’s readiness to import more of the US productions could be beneficial.

With both the scheduled events less likely to offer any positive signs,
the JPY may rise due to its safe-haven appeal.

Technical Talk:GBP/USD 28-01-2019

GBP/USD corrects from 3-1/2 month tops, comes down to mid-1.3100s
Our preference: long positions above 1.3150 with targets at 1.3220 & 1.3260 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3150 look for further downside with 1.3115 & 1.3080 as targets.

Comment:
• A modest USD bounce prompts some profit-taking after last week’s strong upsurge.
• Traders also seemed to lighten their bullish bets ahead of Tuesday’s Brexit vote.
• BoE Governor Carney’s scheduled speech eyed for some short-term trading impetus.

The GBP/USD pair extended its steady intraday retracement slide and
eroded a part of Friday’s strong upsurge to the highest level since mid-October.A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to continue gaining strong traction on Friday and build on the recent bullish momentum further beyond the very important 200-day SMA,
to levels just above the 1.3200 handle.Against the backdrop of diminishing risks of a no-deal Brexit, news that Ireland’s DUP was prepared to conditionally back the UK PM Theresa May’s
Brexit Plan B provided an additional boost to the already stronger British Pound.The positive momentum was further supported by a broad-based US Dollar selloff, triggered by news reports that Fed officials are close to putting an end to the central bank’s balance sheet normalization sooner than expected.

The USD bearish pressure now seems to have abated,
at least for the time being and turned out to be one of the key factors prompting some profit-taking, especially after last week’s strong upsurge of nearly 400-pips.

Traders also seemed to lighten their bullish bets ahead of the parliamentary debate and vote on the amended Brexit plan, scheduled on Tuesday. In the meantime, the BoE Governor Mark Carney scheduled speech, later in the day,
might influence the GBP price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities.

Technical Talk:GBP/USD 24-01-2019

GBP/USD corrects further from 2-1/2 month tops, 1.30 mark back on sight
Our preference: short positions below 1.3075 with targets at 1.3015 & 1.2975 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3075 look for further upside with 1.3095 & 1.3120 as targets..

Comment:
• A goodish pickup in the USD demand prompts traders to take some profits off the table.
• Expectations of Article 50/receding fears of no-deal Brexit might limit further downside.

The GBP/USD pair extended its steady intraday decline from 2-1/2 month tops and is
currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 1.3030-25 region.

The pair struggled to extend this week’s strong bullish momentum further
beyond the very important 200-day SMA and started retreating from the 1.3100 neighborhood,
the highest since Nov. 8. The pair snapped three consecutive days of a winning streak and in absence of any fresh catalyst,
the corrective slide could be solely attributed to some profit-taking amid a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand.

Despite a weaker tone around the US Treasury bond yields, concerns over global growth,
the US government shutdown and unresolved US-China trade disputes,
the greenback regained positive traction and was seen as one of the key factors prompting traders to take some profits off the table,
especially after the latest upsurge of nearly 270-pips over the past three trading sessions.

The downtick might still be looked upon as a buying opportunity amid growing market expectations of an
extension of Article 50 and receding risk of a no-deal Brexit, reinforced by Wednesday’s report that the
UK Labour Party will back an amendment aimed at forcing a parliamentary vote on delaying Brexit if a deal isn’t passed by Feb. 26.

An extension of Article 50 is also seen as increasing chances of a second referendum, which might continue to lend some support to the British Pound and help limit deeper losses, at least for the time being and amid absent relevant market moving economic releases.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate support is now pegged near the key 1.3000 psychological mark handle and is closely followed by the 1.2975-65 region, below which the downfall could further get extended back towards the 1.2900 handle. n the flip side, the 1.3065 level now seems to act as an immediate hurdle,
which if cleared might assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 1.3100 round figure mark.

Technical Talk:Gold 23-01-2019

Gold sidelined near $1285 level, trade-related headlines remain in focus
Our preference: long positions above 1280.25 with targets at 1286.50 & 1290.00 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1280.25 look for further downside with 1276.50 & 1274.00 as targets.

Comment:
• Optimism over US-China trade talks weighs on traditional safe-haven assets.
• The positive tone around the US bond yields further collaborates towards capping.
• A subdued USD demand turns out to be the only factor lending some support.

Gold struggled to build on the overnight goodish up-move from closer to two-week lows and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session on Wednesday.Against the backdrop of growing concerns over slowing global growth, resurfacing trade tensions further dampened investors’ risk-appetite and boosted the precious metal’s traditional safe-haven status on Tuesday.
News reports on Tuesday suggested that the US has turned down an offer of a preparatory trade meeting with Chinese counterparts due to outstanding disagreements over the enforcement of intellectual property rules.
However, a combination of diverging factors failed to provide any fresh
impetus and kept a lid on any follow-through up-move for the commodity, leading to a subdued/range-bound price action.
White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow denied the report about the US cancelling a trade planning,
which coupled with an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields dampened demand for the non-yielding yellow-metal.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar failed to preserve/build on the overnight uptick and
turned out to be the only factor lending some support/limiting any meaningful downside for the dollar-denominated commodity.
In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the US,
broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might
continue to act as key determinants of the commodity’s move on Wednesday.

Technical Talk:USD/CAD 22-01-2019

USD/CAD Intraday: Further advance
Our preference: long positions above 1.3300 with targets at 1.3370 & 1.3405 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3300 look for further downside with 1.3275 & 1.3250 as targets.

Comment:
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD is trading at 1.3321; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency.
The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 1.3290 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3405.
Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level.
However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.3265.
In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3175.

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 01-21-2019

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further weakness could see 1.1300 re-tested
Our preference: long positions above 1.1370 with targets at 1.1410 & 1.1425 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1370 look for further downside with 1.1360 & 1.1350 as targets.

Comment:
EUR/USD came under heightened selling pressure throughout last week,
dropping to lows near 1.1350, where some decent support appears to have emerged.
A loss of last week’s lows should open the door for a potential visit of the key 200-week SMA at 1.1323 ahead of YTD lows at 1.1306 (January 3).
Further out, spot is expected to remain neutral/bearish while below the September 2018-January 2019 resistance line, today at 1.1552.

Technical Talk:CAD/JPY 17-01-2019

Our preference: downside prevails 81.81 with targets at 81.34 & 80.84 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 81.81 look for further Up with 82.14 & 82.42 as targets.

Comment:
Short term Elliott Wave view on CADJPY suggests that the rally to 82.4 on Jan 9, 2019 ended wave (W).
Pair then corrected in wave (X) as a double three Elliott Wave structure and the dip ended at 81.25.
Down from 82.4, wave W ended at 81.42, wave X ended at 82.17, and wave Y of (X) ended at 81.25.

Since then pair has made a new high above wave (W) at 82.4 suggesting that the next leg higher in wave (Y) has started.
The rally from 81.25 can unfold in various structures. We propose a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure in the rally higher.
Up from 81.25, wave
((i)) ended at 82.07 and wave
((ii)) ended at 81.5. Wave
((iii)) is in progress and should subdivide as another impulse of lesser degree.
Two more highs in wave
((iii)) and wave (
(v)) should happen before wave A ends.

Afterwards, it should pullback in wave B to correct the cycle from 1/14 low (81.25) before the next leg higher starts. As far as the pullback stays above 81.25, we expect pair to extend higher within wave (Y). Next potential target is 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of (W)-(X) at 84.9 – 85.75.

Technical Talk:WTI/USD 16/01/2019

WTI/USD: Crude WTI consolidates at 55.35 and 55.70
Our preference: downside prevails 52.06 with targets at 51.34 & 50.55 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 52.06 look for further up with 52.54 & 53.01 as targets.

Comment:
WTI/USD: Crude WTI sold off in yesterdays session after breaching 58.95 and 58.55 support as highlighted in yesterday’s update.
Crude prices slipped below 58.95 and fell all the way to 54.85 support.

Our forecast

WTI/USD: Crude WTI prices have been consolidating in a tight range in today’s session between 55.35 and 55.70.
The pair needs to break above 55.70 to continue to 56.40. Crude prices could fall further to 54.85 if it fails at 55.70.

Support/Short – 55.35, 54.85, 53.85

Resistance/Target – 55.70, 56.40, and 57.50

Technical Talk:USD/CAD 14-01-2019

USD/CAD technical analysis: The pair may move higher towards the 1.3320 level.Our preference: long positions above 1.3252 with targets at 1.3311 & 1.3385 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3252 look for further downside with 1.3208 & 1.3156 as targets.

Comment:
The US Dollar formed a solid support near the 1.3180 and later climbed higher against the Canadian Dollar.
The USD/CAD pair gained traction above the 1.3210 resistance and moved into a positive zone.

During the upside, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3220 on the hourly chart.
The pair later settled above the 1.3240 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.