Brexit: Dutch PM Rutte says EU will grant extension if MPs do their bit, GBP/USD remains at low ground
Our preference: short positions below 1.3150 with targets at 1.3100 & 1.3070 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3150 look for further upside with 1.3250 & 1.3300 as targets
Mark Rutte, the PM of the Netherlands, said that the EU is ready to grant the Brexit short extension that
PM May seeks if British Members of Parliament do their bit.
He says that the problems are not due to May but others playing party politics.
Asked about what happens if Parliament rejects the deal for the third time,
he only says that the EU will need to assess the situation.
EU leaders are meeting for a summit in Brussels to discuss Brexit and other topics.
A decision may have to wait until the very last minute.
GBP/USD trades around 1.3130, slightly off the daily lows at 1.3105.
XAGUSD (Silver) – Limited upside
Our preference: short positions below 15.3800 with targets at 15.2000 & 15.1000 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 15.3800 look for further upside with 15.4400 & 15.5300 as targets
GBP/USD Analysis: Surges to R2 at 1.3355
Our preference: long positions below 1.3254 with targets at 1.3170 & 1.3120 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.3254 look for further upside with 1.3291 & 1.3334 as targets.
During Thursday’s trading session, the British Pound traded sideways to stay at 1.3200. On Friday morning,
the rate was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to trade at the 1.3264 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will keep surging towards the weekly
R2 at the 1.3355 mark.
It is expected that the rate will end today’s trading session at the 1.3300 level.
GBP/USD rebounds from 1.3200 neighborhood, focus remains on Article 50 extension voteOur preference: long positions above 1.3185 with targets at 1.3290 & 1.3340 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3185 look for further downside with 1.3125 & 1.3065 as targets.
• Intraday bullish spike quickly fizzles out amid confusion over the duration of Article 50 extension.
• Tusk said to push for longer extension; May to opt for short delay if deal approved by March 20.
The GBP/USD pair faded an early European session knee-jerk bullish spike and tumbled to fresh session lows,
closer to the 1.3300 handle in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter.
The pair did get a goodish lift and surged to an intraday high level of 1.3331 in reaction to unconfirmed
news that the DUP is considering to support the government’s deal. The uptick quickly fizzled out,
rather met with some aggressive selling pressure and the pair erased a major part of the overnight
strong gains posted after the UK Parliament voted for a non-binding motion to reject the idea to leave the
European Union without a trade deal.
Despite a vote to reject a no-deal Brexit, confusion over the duration of Article
50 extension was seen as one of the key factors affecting negatively on the British Pound.
The European Council President Donald Tusk was noted saying that he will push for a longer extension and the
UK PM Theresa May emphasized for a short delay if a deal is approved by March 20. Meanwhile,
the UK government spokesman said that May would put her Brexit deal back to the
Parliament for a third vote if she thought it would win support
The bearish pressure now seems to have abated, at least for the time being, and the pair managed to
find decent support just ahead of the 1.3200 round figure mark to recover around 25-30 pips from daily swing lows.
It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any follow-through buying as market
participants now look forward to this week’s final key vote on an extension of the fast-approaching March
29 Brexit deadline
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Intraday bounce remains capped below 200-DMA ahead of US retail salesOur preference: long positions above 111.00 with targets at 111.45 & 111.65 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 111.00 look for further downside with 110.85 & 110.75 as targets
• Despite Friday’s disappointing headline NFP print, the pair managed to defend and regain positive traction from a support
marked by the lower end of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation.
• Technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias but are holding in the neutral territory on the
1-hourly chart and have also started gaining negative traction on the 4-hourly chart.
• Moreover, the fact that the attempted intraday bounce remained below the very important 200-day SMA also
warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the major.
• Traders now look forward to today’s important release of the US monthly retail sales data, which might influence the USD
price dynamics and eventually provide some meaningful trading impetus.
• Sustained move beyond the mentioned hurdle might assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 112.00 handle,
though a decisive break below the trend-channel would mark a fresh bearish breakdown.
USD/JPY Positive bias – Westpac
Our preference: short positions below 111.80 with targets at 111.45 & 111.30 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 111.80 look for further upside with 111.90 & 112.00 as targets
Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac,
suggests that their multi-month positive bias for the USD/JPY pair remains intact.
“The US economy has lost momentum but the Fed already expected a softer 2019
and with the distortions of the government shutdown etc, it is not at all clear that the growth
outlook is far from the Fed’s base case.”
“At the very least, US rates markets are not interested in pricing a 2019 Fed rate cut,
which is a reasonable stance given for example the US non-manufacturing ISM at 59.7 in Feb.”
“USD/JPY has probed the 112.00 area a couple of times lately, printing YTD highs. As the chart shows,
spec positioning is now nicely balanced for a push towards 113 multi-week,
and consolidation near term would not alter the bullish longer term outlook.”
GBP/USD regains 1.3150 ahead of EU-UK Brexit talks, US ADP
Our preference: short positions below 1.3190 with targets at 1.3140 & 1.3105 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3190 look for further upside with 1.3225 & 1.3255 as targets.
Buyers lurk near 1.3125 levels, as USD bulls take a breather in early Europe.But Brexit deadlock continues to negate Carney’s comments and upbeat UK services.
Round 2 of EU-UK Brexit negotiations remain the central focus amid US ADP dataThe bid tone around the US dollar across its main competitors weakened in the European trading, now pushing the GBP/USD pair back above the midpoint of the 1.31 handle.
The pair continued to find strong bids near the 1.3125 region and now finally seems to break theAsian consolidative mode to the upside, as the US dollar seems to extend its retreat broadly,
having faced rejection at the 97 level. A bout of profit-taking in the
USD long positions cannot be ruled out heading into the key US ADP jobs report, a precursor for the highly influential US NFP due this Friday.
EUR/USD Analysis: Drops below technical supports
Our preference: short positions below 1.1370 with targets at 1.1335 & 1.1315 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.1370 look for further upside with 1.1385 & 1.1410 as targets.
On Monday, the EUR/USD began the day’s trading above the support of the various hourly simple moving averages.
Although, it began to immediately decline.
By the middle of the day’s trading session the rate had fallen below the
1.1350 level and it was expected to continue its decline. Namely, the pair had no support as low as the weekly S1 at 1.1324.
On the other hand, the rate has already made a too sharp move downwards.
Due to that reason it might first consolidate the decline by trading sideways.
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: Focus on today’s close
Our preference: as long as 147.19 is support look for 148.69.
Alternative scenario: below 147.19, expect 146.64 and 146.31..
GBP/JPY’s rally from the Feb. 15 low of 141 sees to have run out of steam,
as the pair created a doji candle on the daily chart – a sign of bullish indecision.
A close above 148.27 (Doji high) would imply a continuation of the rally from the low of 141.00.
However, a close below 146.98 (Doji low) would signal a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change.