Crude Oil Price Forecast: 29 May 2019 – Where Next For Prices?
Our preference: short positions below 58.60 with targets at 57.50 & 57.00 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 58.60 look for further upside with 59.10 & 59.55 as targets
Oil prices fell by around 1% on Wednesday on concerns the Sino-U.S. trade war could trigger a global economic downturn,
but relatively tight supply amid OPEC output cuts and political tensions in the Middle East offered some support.
Prices have been supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) since the start of the year, and by political tensions in the Middle East.
OPEC and some allies including Russia are due to meet on June 25 and 26 to discuss output policy.
Meanwhile speculators cut their net long positions in U.S. Crude futures and options again in the latest week.
Where are commodity prices heading next? Watch Phil Carr at The Gold & Silver Club review Crude Oil with the latest price forecast
10 Year US Notes Points Lower; and GBPJPY Can Stop Its Weakness!
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 139.13 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 139.13, look for 139.74 and 140.11.
In risk-off mode commodity currencies and XXX/JPY pairs will benefit,
especially if 10 year US notes are headed down based on 1h wave count which is pointing down for wave C).
In such case even very weak GBPJPY would stabilize, but after wave five which is around the corner.
NZD/USD moves sideways near mid-0.65s in choppy trading day
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.6563 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 0.6563, would call for 0.6584 and 0.6596.
Empty economic calendar paves the way for subdued trading action.
Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. keeps volume down.
RBNZ to publish Financial Stability Report later this week.
The NZD/USD pair closed the previous week with small gains and started the new week in a calm manner and
has been moving sideways in a tight 20-pip range since. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 0.6548.
The U.S. markets will be closed due to Memorial Day holiday and it also suggests that President
Trump is unlikely to tweet about the trade conflict with China. The lack of macroeconomic data releases and
political developments in the second half of the day is likely to force the pair to continue to move sideways.
While speaking to reporters during his visit to Japan, President Trump said that he thought that the would have a deal
with China sometime in the future but added that they were not ready to do it yet.
Later this week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be releasing its Financial Stability Report and Governor
Orr will be delivering his remarks on the report. On the other hand, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index and the
Consumer Board Consumer Confidence Survey will be featured in the U.S. economic docket on Tuesday.
EUR/CAD Euro gains against CAD on BoC dovishness
Our preference: eye 1.4955.
Alternative scenario: above 1.5099, look for 1.5152 and 1.5184
EUR/CAD is trading just below its 100 SMA as the pair has been ranging since February.
EUR/CAD spiked to 1.5140 as the Bank of Canada was dovish.
XAU/USD Strengthens above 100-hour SMA, now eyeing a move beyond 23.6% Fibo./weekly tops
Our preference: short positions Up 1275.50 with targets at 1283.50 & 1294.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1276.50 look for further upside with 1279.00 & 1282.00 as targets.
• Gold regained positive traction on Thursday and continued scaling higher through the mid-European session,
retesting the overnight swing high near the $1277-78 supply zone.
• The mentioned region coincides with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the $1303-$1269 recent slide and should
now act as a key pivotal point for any further near-term recovery.
Meanwhile, the intraday positive move has now lifted the precious metal above 100-hour SMA for the first time in around a week
and support prospects for additional gains amid a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade.
XAU/USD Drops to fresh two-week lows, now seems vulnerable to test $1266 area .Our preference: short positions below 1276.50 with targets at 1271.50 & 1268.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1276.50 look for further upside with 1279.00 & 1282.00 as targets.
• Gold finally broke down of its consolidative trading range – forming a bearish continuation rectangle chart pattern
and tumbled to fresh two-week lows.
• A sustained break through the pattern support near the $1274 horizontal zone was seen as a key trigger
behind the latest leg of a sudden drop in the last hour.
The occurrence of death-cross on hourly charts – wherein 50-period SMA crosses below 200-period SMA,
add credence to the bearish set-up. However, technical indicators on the 4-hourly chart remained in the
oversold territory and might turn out to be the only factors holding traders from placing aggressive bearish bets.
Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and are still far from being in the oversold zone,
clearly suggesting that any attempted bounce might still be seen as a selling opportunity near the
$1278-79 region for an eventual slide back towards monthly swing lows support near the $1266 region.
USD/CAD retreats farther from Friday’s 3-week tops amid bullish oil prices
Our preference: short positions below 1.3455 with targets at 1.3415 & 1.3395 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3455 look for further upside with 1.3470 & 1.3490 as targets.
• Bullish oil prices underpin Loonie and prompt some fresh selling on Monday.
• The USD holds stable near multi-week tops and helped limit further downside.
The USD/CAD pair came under some fresh selling pressure at the start of a new trading
week and extended the previous session’s late pullback from three-week tops.
Having jumped to levels beyond the key 1.3500 psychological mark on Friday,
the pair started losing steam in reaction to the news that the US was set to remove the steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada.
The retracement slide extended through the early part of Monday’s trading action and was further pressurized
by a goodish pickup in Oil prices, which benefitted the commodity-linked currency – Loonie.
In fact, Oil is now up by around 1.30% on the day, supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East and indications that
OPEC+ would probably decide to maintain production cuts next month.
On the other hand, the US Dollar held stable near multi-week tops and might turn out to be the only factor that helped
limit any deeper losses amid persistent market concerns about US-China trade tensions.
With the Canadian markets closed in observance of Victoria Day, empty US economic docket seems
unlikely to provide any meaningful impetus on Monday and leaves the pair at the mercy of USD/Oil price dynamics.
USD/CAD climbs higher toward 1.3500 amid broad-based USD strength
Our preference: long positions above 1.3455 with targets at 1.3505 & 1.3520 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.3455 look for further downside with 1.3440 & 1.3415 as targets.
US Dollar Index inches closer to 98.
West Texas Intermediate stays quiet above $63.
Coming up: The UoM’s Consumer Confidence Index from the U.S.
After spending the large part of the day in a relatively tight range near mid-1.34s,
the USD/CAD pair gained traction in the last couple of hours supported by the strong USD demand. As of writing,
the pair was trading at 1.3492, adding 0.25% on a daily basis.
The broad-based selling pressure surrounding major European currencies following the news of cross-party talks in the
UK failing on Friday seems to be helping the greenback outperform its rivals. The US Dollar Index,
which started a recovery move after testing the 97 handle on Monday, advanced to its highest level since May 3 at 97.95
and was last seen near that level, adding 0.12% on a daily basis.
USD/CAD slides to fresh weekly lows, closer to 1.3400 handle amid rising oil pricesOur preference: short positions below 1.3440 with targets at 1.3390 & 1.3360 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3440 look for further upside with 1.3450 & 1.3465 as targets.
• Rallying oil prices underpin Loonie and exert some downward pressure.
• A modest USD pullback further contributes to the ongoing downfall.
• Traders now eye second-tier economic data for some fresh impetus.
The USD/CAD pair remained under some selling pressure for the third consecutive session on
Thursday and dropped to fresh weekly low, around the 1.3415-10 region in the last hour.
After once again failing to make it through the key 1.3500 psychological mark, the pair
witnessed some long-unwinding pressure on Wednesday amid a solid bounce in Oil prices, amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East.
:EUR/GBP technical analysis: 100-day SMA grabs the buyer’s immediate attention
Our preference: under pressure below 0.8708.
Alternative scenario: above 0.8708, look for 0.8741 and 0.8761.
Gradual improvement in RSI joins a sustained break of short-term resistance to favor the further upside.
100-day SMA grabs the spotlight for now.
Sustained trading beyond 0.8650/55 horizontal area enables the EUR/GBP pair to trade near
0.8680 while heading into the European session on Wednesday.
Should the bulls remain in command, 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level around
0.8700 can become their immediate favorite prior to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January – March downturn, near 0.8715.
Given the price strength remain intact beyond 0.8715, 0.8740 and 0.8760 can entertain optimism ahead of challenging them with
0.8790 – 0.8800 resistance-zone comprising 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement.