WTI Hits Resistance Near 57.00 and Pulls Back
Our preference: long positions above 54.05 with targets at 54.76 & 55.16 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 54.05 look for further downside with 53.40 & 52.95 as targets.
WTI traded higher yesterday, after hitting support near 55.60. That said,
the advance was stopped by the 57.00 zone and today, the black liquid pulled back.
Overall, WTI is still trading within the range that’s been containing most of the price action
since August 9th, between 53.85 and 57.30. At the same time, it also trades below the tentative
downside resistance line drawn from the high of April 23rd. Thus, we would stay flat for now,
although the price is trading closer to the upper end of the aforementioned short-term range.
If the bears are willing to push the price lower, then we may see them targeting yesterday’s low again,
near 55.60. That said, we would like to see a clear break below 55.35,
a support marked by the inside swing high of August 26th,
before we get confident on larger declines within the pre-discussed range.
Such a dip may pave the way towards the lower end of the range,
at around 53.85. If the bears are not willing to stop there either,
then we could see them aiming for the 53.10 zone, near the low of August 25th.
USD/CAD slips below 1.3300 handle, erases Wednesday’s positive move
Our preference: short positions below 1.3300 with targets at 1.3270 & 1.3250 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3300 look for further upside with 1.3320 & 1.3340 as targets.
Positive trade-related comments boost Oil prices and underpinned Loonie.
Investors now look forward to the revised US GDP print for a fresh impetus.
The USD/CAD pair quickly retreated around 25-pips and retreated back below the 1.3300
round figure mark during the early European session.
The pair failed to capitalize on this week’s goodish rebound from the 1.3225
region and met with some fresh supply on Thursday to snap two consecutive
days of winning streak amid a sudden pickup in Crude Oil prices.
EUR/GBP downside correction finds a base on ascending trendline
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.9081 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 0.9081, look for 0.9116 and 0.9136..
EURGBP remained below the 0.9100 level despite bouncing on the critical
3-month old ascending trend-line last week. With the RSI losing steam slightly
under its 50 neutral mark and the MACD weakening below its red signal line,
the short-term session is expected to appear neutral-to-bearish.
The upward-sloping trend-line could play a key role for the market to keep the upside direction.
However if the bears manage to push the wall down,
the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.9000 of the upleg from 0.8470 to 0.9323 could take control
before the spotlight turns to the 50% Fibonacci of 0.8890. Beneath the latter,
the area between the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 61.8%
Fibonacci of 0.8796 could be another important obstacle.
WTI Crude Oil, downtrend continuation to 52.55 while trading below 54.95
Our preference: long positions above 54.25 with targets at 55.12 & 55.55 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 54.25 look for further downside with 53.40 & 52.95 as targets.
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 54.60,which will be followed by reaching support level 53.40.
An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 54.60,
which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 56.75.
Weekly forecast, August 26 – 30
The downtrend may be expected to continue, while pair is trading below resistance level 54.95, which will be followed by reaching support level 52.55 and if it keeps on moving down below that level, we may expect the pair to reach support level 50.52.An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 54.95, which will be followed by moving down to support level 57.50.
NZD/USD: RBNZ’s Orr-led recovery capped by 0.6400 ahead of Powell
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 0.6396 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 0.6396, would call for 0.6416 and 0.6428.
Stronger US dollar index keeps the NZD/USD recovery in check, as Treasury yields rally.
Kiwi off multi-year lows on RBNZ’s Governor Orr comments, risk-on sentiment.
Markets await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for fresh dollar trades.
The NZD/USD pair is seen consolidating the Asian recovery below the 0.64 handle,
fuelled by unexpectedly less dovish comments from the
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr delivered earlier today.
RBNZ Orr: Rate cut reduces probability of having to do more later
Orr said that the central bank’s 50 bps rate cut reduces probably of
having to do more while downplaying expectations of the bank resorting to unconventional monetary policy tools.
On Orr’s comments, the Kiwi caught a strong bid-wave and staged a recovery from near 2.5-year lows of 0.6362. Markets shrugged off a drop in New Zealand’s Q2 Retail Sales numbers and paid no heed to RBNZ policymaker Hawkesby’s concerns on low price pressures.
USD/CAD extends pullback as WTI remains firm, Canadian CPI/FOMC in the spotlight Our preference: short positions below 1.3320 with targets at 1.3290 & 1.3275 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3320 look for further upside with 1.3335 & 1.3345 as targets.
USD/CAD seesaws near 200-day SMA amid WTI recovery.
Trade/political headlines can offer intermediate moves ahead of Canadian inflation data,
Having failed to hold monthly high drags the USD/CAD again to 200-day simple moving average
(SMA) as it trades near 1.3315 during early Wednesday.
The pair seems to have take clues from the recent recovery of oil prices after the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) stockpile data registered surprise draw. Also adding strength
to the energy prices were comments the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that signals escalation of geopolitical tension concerning Iran.
On the different page, the US-China trade deal uncertainty looms as the US President reiterates lack of readiness to do a deal while Secretary Pompeo expects no trade war by 2020.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve officials continue to advocate for the absence of the US recession.
GBP/NZD intraday: the downside prevails as long as 1.8913 is resistance
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.8913 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 1.8913, look for 1.9003 and 1.9057.
GBP/USD Analysis Supported by moving averages
Our preference: short positions below 1.2140 with targets at 1.2095 & 1.2075 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.2140 look for further upside with 1.2170 & 1.2190 as targets.
At the end of the previous trading week,
the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to surpass the psychological level at 1.2160.
During Monday’s morning, the rate declined to the support level formed by the
55-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.2114.
Note,that the currency pair is also supported by the 100– and 200-hourSMAs,
currently located circa 1.2100. Thus, if the given support holds, is likely,
that a reversal north could occur, and the pair could re-test the given psychological level.Otherwise, it is likely, that the British Pound could depreciate against the US Dollar, and the rate could decline to the psychological level at the 1.2080 mark.
EUR/CAD bears eye 1.47 the figure on the downside
Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 1.4813 is support.
Alternative scenario: below 1.4813, expect 1.4761 and 1.4730.
EUR/CAD’s upside capped as the carry-trade’s euro bid slows down.
BoC in focus this week and a break of the 1.4780 level opens risk to 1.47 the figure.EUR/CAD has dropped from the carry trade unwind highs of close to 1.50 the figure as the euro finally gives up the bid on the 1.12 handle, unable to escape the pessimism surrounding the eurozone economy. EUR/CAD will be a keen focus for the week ahead with a focus on the downside should the Bank of Canada’s outlook remind markets of their neutral stance.
USD/CAD steadily climbs to mid-1.3200s, back closer to multi-week tops set on Friday Our preference: long positions above 1.3215 with targets at 1.3265 & 1.3280 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3215 look for further downside with 1.3195 & 1.3180 as targets
Sliding Oil prices undermined Loonie and helped the pair to regain traction.
The ongoing USD corrective slide might keep a lid on any strong up-move.
Traders eye the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for some short-term impetus.
The USD/CAD pair quickly reversed an Asian session dip to sub-1.3200 level
and has now moved back within the striking distance of six-week tops set on Friday.
The pair managed to regain some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week
and was being supported by a follow-through pullback in Crude Oil prices, which tend to
undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,
concerns that the US-China trade war may further intensify and hit the global economy raised fears about Oil demand growth.
This was evident from a vigorous market reaction on Thursday, sending Oil prices tumbling
8% – the biggest one-day drop in more than four years following the US President Donald
Trump’s unexpected announcement that the US will impose additional 10% tariffs on the remaining
$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from September 1.
Meanwhile, renewed concerns of a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies
overshadowed last week’s hawkish Fed rate cut and triggered a fresh leg of free-fall in the US Treasury bond yields,
prompting some aggressive US Dollar long-unwinding trade, which extended on Monday and might turn out to be the only
factor that might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the major.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait to wait for a strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further
near-term appreciating move as traders now look forward to the US economic docket – highlighting the release of
ISM non-manufacturing PMI, for some impetus later during the early North-American session amid a bank holiday
in Canada in observance of Civic Day