GBP/USD Sterling might show limited upside action on Tory’s victory and would crash if Labour winsOur preference: below 1.3154 with targets at 1.3078 & 1.3001 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.3154 look for further upside with 11.3212 & 1.3275 as targets.
Cable ticked to new nine-month high at 1.3228 in Asia on Thursday in extension of post-Fed rally but eased
back to 1.3200 zone in early European trading.
The pair remains biased higher on positive sentiment over UK election as Conservative Party is expected to win majority.
The pound will be the first to react on election results and two scenarios are in play.
Tory’s victory with comfortable is expected to be bullish signal but reaction might not be as strong as many anticipate.
The pound rallied nearly 10% against dollar and Euro in past four months,
driven by rising optimism for final end of Brexit story and traders may book profits to avoid risk,
that bring in play ‘buy the rumors-sell the facts’ scenario.
Also, technical studies on larger timeframes are overbought and massive monthly cloud weighs heavily (cloud base lays at 1.3337),
adding to the possibilities of limited advance, however,
extension through monthly cloud base and 2018 high at 1.3382 would allow for stronger rally and expose 1.40 zone.
On the other side, sterling might be hurt if leading party fails to get comfortable majority that would lead
towards hung parliament.
And finally, shock on Labour’s victory would push the pound significantly lower and risk losses of several big figures.
Polls will close at 22:00 UK time and first results can be expected in the following hours,
when initial market reaction can be anticipated.
XAU/USD – How far will Gold reach before the upcoming reversal?
Our preference: below 1464 with targets at 1456 & 1451 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1464 look for further upside with 1474 & 1483 as targets.
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal?
ANALYSIS | Published Dec 03, 2019 05:40 (+00:00)
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Just when most traders thought that the previous week is going to end in the red for gold,
something exceptional happened.
The USD Index reversed after rallying, and gold rallied sharply in response. In the end,
gold ended the week in the green by forming a clear weekly reversal.
That was actually the second weekly reversal that we saw recently.
Why is this important? Because of what happened shortly after we saw the opposite of it not so long ago.
EUR/GBP is not ruled out in the very near term – Commerzbank
Our preference: above 0.8521 with targets at 0.8543 & 0.8558 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 0.8521 look for further upside with 0.8511 & 0.8502 as targets.
Following the recent price action, EUR/GBP could attempt a bounce in the next days, according to Karen Jones,
Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank.
“The market came under pressure last week, however given that the market has again seen divergence of the daily RSI,
we suspect we will see only a very slow grind lower at best and may in fact see a bounce higher this week.
EUR/GBP remains stuck below last week’s high at .8606 and has now eroded last week’s low at .8522.
Below here lies the May low at .8465. We note the TD support at .8440 and we look for the market to hold here”.
“Above last week’s high at .8606 lies a minor downtrend channel resistance line at .8622
ahead of the four month downtrend line at .8760. Overhead resistance is reinforced by .8786 the mid-September low”.