EURUSD Outlook: Fall on downbeat German/EU data faces strong headwinds at key 1.1365/58 supports.Our preference: long positions above 1.1395 with targets at 1.1435 & 1.1465 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1395 look for further downside with 1.1380 & 1.1360 as targets.
The Euro accelerated lower on downbeat German / EU PMI data on Friday
(German Nov Manufacturing 51.6 vs 52.3 f/c; Services 53.3 vs 54.6 f/c,
the lowest since mid-2016 and EU Nov Manufacturing 51.5 vs 52.0 f/c; Services 53.1 vs 53.6 f/c).Weak data renewed worries of contraction of German and bloc’s economies on concerns of escalation of trade war.
Fresh weakness cracked pivot at 1.1374 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1216/1.1472)
and pressures key supports at 1.1365 (20SMA) and 1.1358 (week’s low),
with sustained break lower to confirm top at 1.1472 and open way for further easing.Long upper shadows on daily candles of Thu/Wed and failure to close above cracked falling 30SMA(1.1401) were initial bearish signals, with momentum breaking into negative territory and south-heading slow stochastic, add to negative outlook.