Technical Talk:EUR/USD 21-02-2019

EUR/USD’s Current Swing Looks Corrective In Nature
Our preference: long positions above 1.1325 with targets at 1.1390 & 1.1410 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1.1325 look for further downside with 1.1300 & 1.1275 as targets.

Technical Talk:USD/CHF 20-02-2019

USD/CHF sidelined below 1.0050 level, traders await clarity on US-China trade talksOur preference: short positions below 1.0035 with targets at 0.9990 & 0.9970 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1.0035 look for further upside with 1.0060 & 1.0080 as targets.

USD/CHF Analysis

I wrote yesterday that key levels looked like holding and the price seemed to be going nowhere,
although there was a hint of the beginning of a more bearish trend so a short trade from a firm rejection
of the resistance at 1.0058 could be an interesting opportunity especially if it happens early in the
London session – I would take a bearish bias if that sets up. This was a good call as the trade did set up,
although later in the day than I had hoped for and was profitable.

The picture is now more bearish as the USD weakens and the former support at 1.0028 flips to become new lower resistance.
It is also more obvious that the price movement is contained by a bearish price channel which is shown in the chart below.
I would take a bearish bias today if we have a strong bearish rejection of the resistance at 1.0025

Technical Talk:EUR/AUD 14-01-2019

Technical Talk:EUR/AUD Technical Analysis: Inverted hammer at 50% Fibo guards upside, although doji confirms traders’ indecision
Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 1.5891 is resistance.
Alternative scenario: above 1.5891, look for 1.5938 and 1.5965.

Comment:
The EUR/AUD pair trades little positive around 1.5970 during the early Asian sessions on Tuesday.Daily chart confirms traders’ indecision on Monday’s “Doji” candle after guarding the upside by Friday’s “Inverted Hammer”.
While “inverted hammer” supports the claim of consolidation considering across the board USD strength, “doji” portrays traders’ dilemma.
The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.5930 can offer immediate support to the pair before diverting market attention to the 1.5855-50 support-zone, including 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December-January surge.In case prices slip under 1.5850 on a daily closing basis, the 1.5730 and the 1.5670 may come back on the chart.
Alternatively, 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.6015 seems adjacent upside barrier for the pair,
a break of which can propel the quote to upward sloping resistance-line at 1.6065.
During the pair’s successful rise over 1.6065, the 1.6100 and the 1.6185 may please the buyers.

Technical Talk:Gold 13-02-2019

Gold remains capped below $1315-16 supply zone, US CPI in focus
Our preference: long positions above 1309.50 with targets at 1314.25 & 1315.75 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1309.50 look for further downside with 1308.00 & 1306.00 as targets.

Comment:
• Dovish Fed expectations continue to lend support and limit downside.
• Renewed USD buying/risk-on mood seemed to cap further up-move.
• Traders eye US consumer inflation figures for some meaningful impetus.

Gold held on to its mildly positive tone through the early European session,
albeit struggled to make it through the $1314-16 immediate supply zone.

Having found decent support ahead of the key $1300 psychological mark earlier this week,
the precious metal traded with a positive bias for the fourth session in the previous five and remained
supported by growing market expectations that the Fed was in no hurry to tighten rates further.

However, a combination of negative forces – renewed US Dollar buying interest and the prevalent risk-on mood,
which tends to dent demand for traditional safe-haven assets,
kept a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the dollar-denominated commodity.

The US President Donald Trump’s overnight comments,
saying that he could let the March 1 tariff deadline to slide for a while,
fueled optimism over a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks and continued boosting investors’
appetite for riskier assets – like equities.

Meanwhile, the greenback stalled its overnight corrective slide and regained some traction during the early
European session on Wednesday, which further collaborated towards capping any
meaningful up-move for the commodity, at least for the time being.

Moving ahead, today’s US economic docket, highlighting the release of the latest consumer inflation figures,
might influence Fed rate hike expectations and eventually provide some meaningful impetus for the non-yielding
yellow metal later during the early North-American session.

Technical Talk:NZD/USD 11-02-2019

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Bull RSI divergence on 1H chart, focus on CNH
Our preference: as long as 0.6734 is support look for 0.6809.
Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 0.6734 would call for 0.6706 and 0.6690.

Comment:
The NZD/USD pair beat the 200-day moving average (MA) hurdle at
0.6765 soon before press time and could rise further to 0.68 as the hourly chart is reporting a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

At press time, most currencies are reporting gains against the greenback,
possibly tracking the strength in yuan. The USD/CNH pair (offshore yuan exchange rate)
is currently trading 0.13 percent lower on the day at 6.7737, having clocked a low of 6.7646 earlier today.

Technical Talk:USD/CAD 07-02-2019

USD/CAD climbs to over 1-week tops, near mid-1.3200s
Our preference: long positions above 1.3225 with targets at 1.3265 & 1.3285 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3225 look for further downside with 1.3205 & 1.3170 as targets.

Comment:
• Remains well bid for the fourth straight session amid the continuation of the USD rally.
• Weaker oil prices further undermine Loonie and remain supportive of the positive move.

The USD/CAD pair continued gaining positive traction on Thursday and
climbed to over one-week tops in the last hour.

The pair built on its recent recovery move from near three-month lows,
with a combination of supporting factors fueling the ongoing positive momentum for the fourth consecutive session.

Despite the recent dovish turn on rate hikes by the Federal Reserve,
the US Dollar extended its recent upward trajectory and strengthened further beyond the 96.00 handle, or near two-week tops.

This coupled with a weaker tone surrounding crude oil prices,
amid concerns over rising US supply, further undermined the commodity-linked currency Loonie and remained supportive.

Today’s up-move, back closer to mid-1.3200s could further be attributed to
some follow-through technical buying, especially after yesterday’s close above the 1.3200 handle,
or 100-day SMA barrier.

It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to extend the trajectory
or witness some profit-taking at higher levels, given this week’s appreciating move of over 150-pips.

In absence of any major market moving economic releases,
the USD/oil price dynamics might continue to act as key
determinants of the pair’s momentum through Thursday’s trading session.

Technical Talk:EUR/GBP 06-02-2019

 

EUR/GBP: Upside correction remains in force – Commerzbank
Our preference: target 0.8749.
Alternative scenario: above 0.8819, look for 0.8846 and 0.8862.

Comment:
According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/GBP’s
correction higher remains in force and is capable of gains to .8840/90 where they are looking for signs of failure.

Key Quotes

“Below .8700 attention will revert to the .8620/18 2018 and 2019 lows. We have minor support at
.8723 and this guards the .8620/18 lows. Failure at .8620/18 would suggest ongoing weakness to the base of the channel at .8545 and potentially the 200 week ma at .8349.”

“The market stays directly offered below the 200 day ma at .8864,
and only above here allows for a move to the 55 day ma at .8898 and this,
together with the October .8941 high, are expected to contain the topside.”

Technical Talk:EUR/USD 31-01-2019

EUR/USD slips to daily lows near 1.1480 post-EU data
Our preference: long positions above 1.1300 with targets at 1.1625 & 1.1800 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1300 look for further downside with 1.1210 & 1.1025 as targets.

Comment:
The pair loses the grip and retreats to the 1.1480/75 band.
EMU flash GDP expected at 0.2% QoQ in Q4.
Italy expected to slip into recession in Q4.
The correction lower around the European currency is now picking up pace and is dragging EUR/USD to test daily lows in the proximity of 1.1470.

EUR/USD offered on EMU data

Spot came under further selling pressure after Italian preliminary
GDP figures now see the economy entering into recession in the October-December 2018 period. In fact, flash Italian Q4 GDP figures came in at -0.2% QoQ and 0.1% YoY.

In the broader euro bloc, advanced GDP readings see the economy expanding 0.2% inter-quarter and 1.2% over the last twelve months during the last three months of 2018. Additionally, the jobless rate stayed put at 7.9% in December.

The pair gave away part of the overnight advance beyond 1.1500 the figure in the wake of the data releases, although decent support so far emerged in the 1.1480/75 band.

What to look for around EUR/USD

USD-dynamics will drive the sentiment in the pair in the very near term, showing some upside potential in response to the now neutral stance from the Federal Reserve. However, fundamentals in the euro region are not something to write home about and this carries the potential
to weigh on the single currency in the next months. Politics in Euroland will also be a factor to have in mind, with EU parliamentary elections coming up in May and investors closely following the social scenario in France and populist developments in Italy.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.05% at 1.1485 facing the next up barrier at 1.1514 (high Jan.31)
seconded by 1.1515 (50% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1569 (2019 high Jan.9).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1446 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1388 (55-day SMA) en route to
1.1323 (200-week SMA).

Technical Talk:USD/JPY 30-01-2019

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen awaits fresh impulse from the Fed and trade talks
Our preference: short positions below 109.55 with targets at 109.10 & 108.90 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 109.55 look for further upside with 109.70 & 109.95 as targets

Comment:
The USD/JPY trades in mid 109.00s ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) monetary policy meeting and US-China trade talks.The US Federal
Reserve isn’t expected to alter present monetary policy but weigh on
recent “patience” calls and possibly balance sheet reduction.
China could respect demand to increase the US import against likely
turning down calls for restructuring the economy and IPR protection.
The Japanese Yen is trading little changed near 109.45 against the US
Dollar on Wednesday around noon in London as global investors eagerly await
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Powell is expected to confirm data dependency in Fed’s rate-hike trajectory.
The Fed is widely expected to offer no change in its present monetary policy.

The beginning of two-day trade talk between the US and China are also on the trader’s radar.
Amid signs that Trump administration’s demand for structural reforms and strict
investors property rights (IPR) protection could hinder the progress.
Chinese delegation including President’s top aide Liu He will meet the
US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Wednesday and Thursday.

In light of the latest calls for ¨patience¨ in future monetary policy path,
the Fed might refrain from supporting its earlier view that required “further” policy normalization. Fed is expected to voice its data dependency instead as recent negative data and absence of few statistics due to the US government shutdown.

At the trade front, the US allegations on China’s smartphone giant
Huawei can spoil the start as Chinese foreign ministry remains firm to
protect the interest of their companies. Additionally,
the US demands for restructuring of world’s second largest economy to best
suit the overseas firms might also hinder the path of progress. On the positive side,
China’s readiness to import more of the US productions could be beneficial.

With both the scheduled events less likely to offer any positive signs,
the JPY may rise due to its safe-haven appeal.

Technical Talk:GBP/USD 28-01-2019

GBP/USD corrects from 3-1/2 month tops, comes down to mid-1.3100s
Our preference: long positions above 1.3150 with targets at 1.3220 & 1.3260 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3150 look for further downside with 1.3115 & 1.3080 as targets.

Comment:
• A modest USD bounce prompts some profit-taking after last week’s strong upsurge.
• Traders also seemed to lighten their bullish bets ahead of Tuesday’s Brexit vote.
• BoE Governor Carney’s scheduled speech eyed for some short-term trading impetus.

The GBP/USD pair extended its steady intraday retracement slide and
eroded a part of Friday’s strong upsurge to the highest level since mid-October.A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to continue gaining strong traction on Friday and build on the recent bullish momentum further beyond the very important 200-day SMA,
to levels just above the 1.3200 handle.Against the backdrop of diminishing risks of a no-deal Brexit, news that Ireland’s DUP was prepared to conditionally back the UK PM Theresa May’s
Brexit Plan B provided an additional boost to the already stronger British Pound.The positive momentum was further supported by a broad-based US Dollar selloff, triggered by news reports that Fed officials are close to putting an end to the central bank’s balance sheet normalization sooner than expected.

The USD bearish pressure now seems to have abated,
at least for the time being and turned out to be one of the key factors prompting some profit-taking, especially after last week’s strong upsurge of nearly 400-pips.

Traders also seemed to lighten their bullish bets ahead of the parliamentary debate and vote on the amended Brexit plan, scheduled on Tuesday. In the meantime, the BoE Governor Mark Carney scheduled speech, later in the day,
might influence the GBP price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities.