Technical Talk:AUD/USD 28-11-2018

AUD/USD sticks to modest daily gains, around 0.7235 level
Our preference: long positions above 0.7215 with targets at 0.7250 & 0.7265 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.7215 look for further downside with 0.7200 & 0.7185 as targets.

Comment:
• The USD remains supported by Clarida’s overnight hawkish comments.
• Bullish copper prices underpinned Aussie and helped limit any downside.
• Revised US GDP print/Powell’s speech now eyed for some fresh impetus.

The AUD/USD pair struggled to build on the early uptick, albeit has managed to hold with modest daily gains, around the 0.7235 region.
After a brief consolidation phase, the US Dollar caught some fresh bids since the early European session and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair’s sudden fall of around 20-pips in the last hour.

The greenback held near two-week highs and remained supported by the Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s overnight hawkish comments, reaffirming the need for further rate increases.

Adding to this, resurfacing US-China trade tensions further collaborated towards keeping a lid on any meaningfulup-move for the China-proxy Australian Dollar.

However, the prevalent positive tone around copper prices, though did little to provide any bullish impetus to the commodity-linked Aussie, helped limit deeper losses, at least for the time being.

Next on tap will be the preliminary release (second estimate) of the US Q3 GDP growth figures, which followed by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech will be looked upon for some short-term momentum play ahead of the quarterly release of Aussie private Capex data on Thursday.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent fall might continue to find some support near the 0.7200 handle, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide further towards the 0.7165 region. On the flip side, the 0.7260-65 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 0.7300 round figure mark.

Technical Talk :USD/CAD 27-11-2018

USD/CAD spikes to multi-day tops, further beyond mid-1.3200s
Our preference: long positions above 1.3230 with targets at 1.3275 & 1.3300 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3230 look for further downside with 1.3200 & 1.3180 as targets.

Comment:
• Resurfacing US-China trade tensions continue to underpin the USD demand.
• Renewed weakness in oil prices weigh on Loonie and remains supportive.

The USD/CAD pair quickly reversed an early European session dip to the 1.3235 region and spiked to four day tops in the last hour.
The pair’s sudden dip came in a knee-jerk reaction to some optimistic comments by China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang,
saying that Trump and Xi have agreed to reach mutually beneficial agreements. The downtick, however,
turned out to be short-lived and was quickly bought into as the spokesman clarified that the agreement refers to Nov. 1st Trump-Xi phone call.

The pair rallied around 40-pips in the last hour and was further supported by resurgent US Dollar demand,
underpinned by the US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% from 10% currently.

Adding to this, some renewed weakness in oil markets, with WTI crude oil losing over 1.0% for the day,
exerted some additional downward pressure on the commodity-linked currency – Loonie and remained supportive of the ongoing positive momentum.

It, however, remains to be seen if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or the up-move starts
fizzling out at higher levels amid growing speculations that the Fed might pause the rate hike cycle as early as spring 2019.

Hence, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech on Wednesday and minutes from the latest
FOMC meeting on Nov. 7-8 on Thursday will be closely scrutinized for cues about the central bank’s pace of monetary tightening path beyond 2018.

The Fed’s monetary policy outlook will play an important role in influencing market sentiment surrounding the buck and eventually
help determine the pair’s next leg of a directional move.

Technical levels to watch

A follow-through buying has the potential to continue lifting the pair further towards
reclaiming the 1.3300 handle en-route its next major hurdle near the 1.3315-20 supply zone.
On the flip side, the 1.3235-30 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support,
which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to head back towards challenging the 1.3185 important horizontal support.

Technical Talk:WTI/USD 26-11-2018

WTI/USD: Crude WTI’s first challenge of the week is at 57.20
Our preference: short positions below 51.60 with targets at 49.90 & 49.00 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 51.60 look for further upside with 53.10 & 53.55 as targets.

Comment:
WTI/USD: Crude WTI’s first challenge of the week is at 57.20

What is going on with Crude WTI /USD? 57.00

WTI/USD: Crude WTI broke through 57.50 resistance in Friday’s session but failed to continue 58.10 and fell to 56.40 support.
The Crude WTI fought back with lots of determination and managed to rebound 56.85 support.

Our forecast.WTI/USD: Crude prices have progressed well to the upside since bouncing at 55.35 support following the recent sell-off.
However, Crude prices need to maintain its trading position above 56.85 to hold the current uptrend.
Crude prices also needs to break and remain above 57.20 to proceed to 57.50 and 58.10. If it fails at 56.85,
then we expect the pair to fall to 56.40 support

Technical Talk: EURUSD 23-11-2018

EURUSD Outlook: Fall on downbeat German/EU data faces strong headwinds at key 1.1365/58 supports.Our preference: long positions above 1.1395 with targets at 1.1435 & 1.1465 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1395 look for further downside with 1.1380 & 1.1360 as targets.

Comment:
The Euro accelerated lower on downbeat German / EU PMI data on Friday
(German Nov Manufacturing 51.6 vs 52.3 f/c; Services 53.3 vs 54.6 f/c,
the lowest since mid-2016 and EU Nov Manufacturing 51.5 vs 52.0 f/c; Services 53.1 vs 53.6 f/c).Weak data renewed worries of contraction of German and bloc’s economies on concerns of escalation of trade war.
Fresh weakness cracked pivot at 1.1374 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1216/1.1472)
and pressures key supports at 1.1365 (20SMA) and 1.1358 (week’s low),
with sustained break lower to confirm top at 1.1472 and open way for further easing.Long upper shadows on daily candles of Thu/Wed and failure to close above cracked falling 30SMA(1.1401) were initial bearish signals, with momentum breaking into negative territory and south-heading slow stochastic, add to negative outlook.

Technical Talk:GBP/USD 21-11-2018

GBP/USD Forecast: Gibraltar rocks Sterling ahead of May-Juncker meeting
Our preference: long positions above 1.2790 with targets at 1.2815 & 1.2895 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.2790 look for further downside with 1.2757 & 1.2729 as targets.

Comment:
The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to hold a meeting with the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker later on Wednesday to discuss Brexit amendments.Spain said it will vote against the Brexit agreement asking for the text amendments to Gibraltar proposal on Tuesday.
UK public sector net borrowing rose above expectations in October, but the year-to-date results were the best since 2005.The Brexit uncertainties keep Sterling bind to sub-1.2800 level.The GBP/USD is trading little changed on the downside at around daily lows of 1.2775 ahead of the
UK Prime Minister May meeting with the European Commission President Juncker later this afternoon. The officials are expected to discuss the Gibraltar issue in the text of the Brexit agreement proposal after
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Tuesday that Spain will vote against the Brexit agreement if the current Gibraltar text is in place.

The UK public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks rose to the highest in three years in October 2018 and stood at £8.8 billion, £1.6 billion more than in October 2017, the Office for National Statistics reported earlier on Wednesday.

Looking at the year-to-date measure, the UK public sector net borrowing reported best results since 2005even as the October finances deteriorated more than expected. The year-to-date public sector net
borrowing rose to £26.7 billion, by £11.2 billion less than in the same period last year.

The GBP/USD currency pair continues to slide lower in a downward sloping trend on a daily chart.With Brexit waiting for approval before the weekend European summit on Brexit scheduled for November 25,
the potential for the upside is capped by the amendments stemming from Gibraltar claims from Spain.The Momentum and the Relative Strength Index both remain in the neutral zone. The Slow Stochastics is sliding lower in the neutral territory.The golden cross of a 50-day moving average crossing over a 100-day moving average to the upside was formed on a daily chart indicating final trend reversal targeting 1.3060 before moving to 1.3380 and 1.3460 important Fibonacci level.The future of the GBP/USD depends on the Brexit deal with failure to get it approved could see the GBP/USD fall towards 1.2660 first before testing 1.2100,the post Brexit referendum low before the upward correction started back in March 2017.

Technical Talk: XAU/USD (20-11-2018)

Our preference: long positions above 1221.00 with targets at 1228.00 & 1230.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1221.00 look for further downside with 1218.00 & 1216.50 as targets.

Comment:
During Thursday’s trading session,
the yellow metal broke the resistance of the monthly pivot point at the
1,213.84 to end the trading session at the 1,214.07 mark. On Friday morning,
the gold was resisted by the 200-hour simple moving average to trade at the 1,215.63 mark. In regards to the near-term future, most likely,
the gold will break the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average at the 1,213.29 mark to trade at the 1,220.00 level.
Besides, the 55-hour simple moving average will try to catch up the yellow metal to
give additional support for the gold during the trading session on Friday.

Team

Topic Markets

Technical Talk: NZD/USD 19-11-2018

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: bearish RSI divergence seen in 4-hour chart, 5-day SMA support could be testedOur preference: long positions above 0.6840 with targets at 0.6875 & 0.6885 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.6840 look for further downside with 0.6815 & 0.6795 as targets.

Comment:
The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6852, down 0.45 percent from Friday’s high of 0.6883, and could witness a deeper pullback to ascending (bullish) 5-day EMA of 0.6822, as the 4-hour chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index.The pullback could be short-lived as the both 5- and 10-day EMAs are trending north, indicating a bullish setup.
A daily close below the ascending 10-day EMA would invalidate the bullish setup, allowing a short-term consolidation.

Technical Talk: AUD/USD 13-11-2018

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Eroding key trendline hurdle on yuan recovery
Our preference: long positions above 0.7035 with targets at 0.7440 & 0.7570 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.7035 look for further downside with 0.6960 & 0.6825 as targets.

Comment:
01 .The recovery in Chinese yuan has likely put a bid under most majors, including the Aussie dollar, lifting the AUD/USD pair to 0.72.
02 .The AUD/USD is currently chipping away at the trendline from Nov. 8 highs, as seen in the hourly chart.
03 . A convincing move above that trendline would mean that the pullback from the recent high of 0.7302 has ended and would open up upside toward 0.73.
04 . A drop below 0.7164 would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the Nov. 8 high of 0.7302.

Technical Talk:USDCAD 09-11-2018

USDCAD Forecast Bullish Fed sends Canadian dollar to 8-week low
Our preference: long positions above 1.3145 with targets at 1.3230 & 1.3280 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3145 look for further downside with 1.3125 & 1.3100 as targets.

Comment:
The Canadian dollar has posted losses in the Friday session, following the trend seen on Thursday. Currently,
USD/CAD is trading at 1.3195, up 0.31% on the day. The pair is trading at its highest level since early September.
There are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the U.S., PPI and Core PPI are both expected to post gains of 0.2% for October,
unchanged from the September readings. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment is forecast to slow to 98.0 points.

After the intense excitement surrounding the U.S. mid-term elections,
he Federal Reserve meeting paled in comparison. The markets were not expecting much drama, as it was not really a “live meeting” – there was virtually no chance of a rate hike and no press conference from Fed chair Jerome Powell.Fed policymakers continued to sound hawkish in the rate statement, in a similar vein to the previous statement in September.
Fed policymakers noted that job creation is solid, unemployment is down and consumer spending has been growing.The one caveat to this rosy picture was that business investment has slowed. The statement added that further “gradual increases” are expected,given that headline and core inflation are close to the Fed target of 2 percent. The Fed next convenes in mid-December,
with the CME Group pegging the odds of a December rate hike at a strong 76 percent.

Technical Talk: WTI Oil 08-11-2018

WTI Oil Outlook: Oversold conditions warn of correction but bears to remain intact while falling 10SMA caps.Our preference: long positions above 61.50 with targets at 62.65 & 63.20 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 61.50 look for further downside with 61.20 & 60.75 as targets.

Comment:
WTI oil is consolidating above new marginally lower 7 ½ month low at $71.19,
posted on Wednesday in extension of massive fall which extends into fifth straight week.
Fading concerns about stronger impact on global supply from sanctions on Iran and another rise in crude stocks(EIA report on Wednesday showed build of 5.78 million barrels vs forecasted rise of 2.43 million barrels)
along with increase in global oil production (US; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iraq) continue to weigh strongly on oil price and maintain strong bearish sentiment.
On the other side, signals that China is on track to keep its oil imports at record highs this year, provides support,which is so far insufficient to offset strong negative sentiment.Strong recovery rejection on Wednesday which left daily Doji candle with long upper shadow,adds to negative outlook but at the same time signals indecision.Oversold daily studies warn that bears are running out of steam and generate initial signals of correction.Daily slow stochastic and RSI are turning north and reversal from oversold territory would provide support scenario.Falling 10SMA ($63.99) and broken weekly cloud top ($64.66) mark pivotal barriers,break of which is needed to generate stronger bullish signal and put bears on hold.Meanwhile, the price may hold in extended consolidation, with the downside to remain vulnerable, as bears keep psychological $60 support in focus.