Our preference: downside prevails 81.81 with targets at 81.34 & 80.84 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 81.81 look for further Up with 82.14 & 82.42 as targets.
Short term Elliott Wave view on CADJPY suggests that the rally to 82.4 on Jan 9, 2019 ended wave (W).
Pair then corrected in wave (X) as a double three Elliott Wave structure and the dip ended at 81.25.
Down from 82.4, wave W ended at 81.42, wave X ended at 82.17, and wave Y of (X) ended at 81.25.
Since then pair has made a new high above wave (W) at 82.4 suggesting that the next leg higher in wave (Y) has started.
The rally from 81.25 can unfold in various structures. We propose a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure in the rally higher.
Up from 81.25, wave
((i)) ended at 82.07 and wave
((ii)) ended at 81.5. Wave
((iii)) is in progress and should subdivide as another impulse of lesser degree.
Two more highs in wave
((iii)) and wave (
(v)) should happen before wave A ends.
Afterwards, it should pullback in wave B to correct the cycle from 1/14 low (81.25) before the next leg higher starts. As far as the pullback stays above 81.25, we expect pair to extend higher within wave (Y). Next potential target is 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of (W)-(X) at 84.9 – 85.75.
WTI/USD: Crude WTI consolidates at 55.35 and 55.70
Our preference: downside prevails 52.06 with targets at 51.34 & 50.55 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 52.06 look for further up with 52.54 & 53.01 as targets.
WTI/USD: Crude WTI sold off in yesterdays session after breaching 58.95 and 58.55 support as highlighted in yesterday’s update.
Crude prices slipped below 58.95 and fell all the way to 54.85 support.
WTI/USD: Crude WTI prices have been consolidating in a tight range in today’s session between 55.35 and 55.70.
The pair needs to break above 55.70 to continue to 56.40. Crude prices could fall further to 54.85 if it fails at 55.70.
Support/Short – 55.35, 54.85, 53.85
Resistance/Target – 55.70, 56.40, and 57.50
USD/CAD technical analysis: The pair may move higher towards the 1.3320 level.Our preference: long positions above 1.3252 with targets at 1.3311 & 1.3385 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.3252 look for further downside with 1.3208 & 1.3156 as targets.
The US Dollar formed a solid support near the 1.3180 and later climbed higher against the Canadian Dollar.
The USD/CAD pair gained traction above the 1.3210 resistance and moved into a positive zone.
During the upside, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3220 on the hourly chart.
The pair later settled above the 1.3240 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.
EUR/USD The pair could attempt another visit to the 1.1600 handle and above
Our preference: long positions above 1.1525 with targets at 1.1548 & 1.1588 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1525 look for further downside with 1.1508 & 1.1489 as targets.
EUR/USD managed to clinch fresh tops in the 1.1570 region on Thursday, just to recede to and close around 1.1500.
The potential for a move higher is expected to remain in place while spot trades above the 2-month support line,
today at 1.1319. The immediate target emerges in the 1.1620/30 band, where converge October lows and the critical 200-day SMA.
Sustaining the ongoing bull run, spot is once again trading above the daily cloud for the first time since mid-October 2018.
AUD/USD bulls struggle to make it through 100-DMA barrier
Our preference: long positions above 0.7180 with targets at 0.7188 & 0.7204 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.7174 look for further downside with 0.7155 & 0.7142 as targets
AUDUSD was strong bearish in 2018 and we were selling AUDUSD right from the top when it was at the 0.81.
The bearish fall was very nice and we enjoyed that fall very well. Now its time to look for it to go back up and hit the 0.81 area again. .
So we have enough price action on lower time frame for reversal. Which means we should look for correction on lower time frame for reversal on AUDUSD .
You will have many buy opportunities on AUDUSD . In the same way the way you were having sells every time when it was correcting back and you guys were selling it.
How you can trade on this chart.
1. We are already having very nice strong impulse and if you missed the long from bottom then watch for the correction on lower time frame and go long.
2. Let the price test the bottom again and go long from bottom.
3. Wait for my updates. For these updates you can follow my weekly market outlook where i show how to look for buy.
Gold Technical Analysis: Deeper pullback likely below 55-period EMA on 4H
Our preference: short positions below 1286.00 with targets at 1279.00 & 1276.00 in extension.Alternative scenario: above 1286.00 look for further upside with 1290.00 & 1292.50 as targets.
Gold bears may feel emboldened if the 4H 55-candle exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $1,280, is breached.
As seen above, the 55-candle EMA has acted as strong support twice in the last six days. Therefore, it is the level to beat for the bears.
More importantly, the yellow metal has carved out a lower price high,
validating Friday’s bearish outside reversal candle.
Put simply, the bull grip has weakened in the last few days. As a result,
a break below the 55-period EMA could yield a deeper pullback, possibly to $1,260.A violation of the falling trendline seen in the above chart would shift risk in favor of a re-test of $1,300.
GBP/JPY stabilising above 138.00, looking for more as risk appetite steps higher.Our preference: as long as 137.42 is support look for 140.02.
Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 137.42 would call for 136.45 and 135.87
Early Monday sees risk appetite on the upswing as the Yen takes a step back across the board, albeit mildly.A lack of notable data this week for the UK sees Brexit front and center for traders’ attention.GBP/JPY is trading into 138.20 in early Monday action, continuing to test into last week’s highs after the Sterling spent a couple of days recovering from a Yen-fueled plunge that saw the Guppy plummet into the 131.50 zone as traders flocked towards the
Japanese Yen on renewed risk sentiment, with a notable lack of market liquidity exacerbating the move. Overall markets have recovered from the risk-off drop, though the GBP/JPY pairing remains down for the past week as Pound bulls struggle to regain the 140.00 level.
Monday is a nice and quiet showing on the economic calendar for both the GBP and the JPY, with little of note worth mentioning, and the next high-impact reading for the UK won’t be until Friday’s monthly GDP figure,
leaving Sterling bidders free to try and surf the inevitable wave of Brexit headlines that are sure to continue as the EU withdrawal quagmire continues to pull down all participants.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading at session’s highs near 0.7050 level Our preference: long positions above 0.6985 with targets at 0.7070 & 0.7100 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 0.6985 look for further downside with 0.6950 & 0.6925 as targets.
AUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA).
The Aussie is trading near 3-year’s low.
EUR/USD recovery fizzles near 1.1385 ahead of US ADP, ISM
Our preference: long positions above 1.1335 with targets at 1.1400 & 1.1435 in extension.Alternative scenario: below 1.1335 look for further downside with 1.1310 & 1.1270 as targets.
Consolidating the recovery, as the bulls take a back seat.
Downbeat US macro data could drive EUR/USD back above 1.14 handle.
The recovery in the EUR/USD pair from the flash crash lows of 1.1310 faltered in the upper bound of the 1.13 handle,
as the bulls take a breather before the next push higher.
The spot is seen paring back the recovery gains, now consolidating in the familiar range near 1.1370 region,
as the renewed uptick in the USD/JPY pair appears to offer a fresh sign of life in the US dollar against its major rivals.
However, the recovery in the greenback looks short-lived amid an extension of the declines in the US equity futures and Treasury yields,
which may eventually send the EUR/USD pair back above the 1.14 handle.
Further, a below estimates US ADP jobs report combined with a dip in the US ISM manufacturing PMI reading could accentuate the dollar’s downside,
triggering a fresh buying wave around the spot, as the buck remains the exclusive driver for the major so far this Thursday.
EUR/USD Forecast 2019: At the starting line of a long and bumpy road
Our preference: EURUSD has made all bull candles on daily chart in the last 3 trading days This is a good news for buyers who has not open a position yet.
Assuming ABC wave is going to happen soon.
Now B is still not confirmed and waiting for signal which could be our entry to join the trend again. C or targets could rise up to 1.153-1.163.
Central banks and politics could cause turmoil, but no longer can spur growth.
Growth is far worse than what the numbers show, recession at risk of materializing.
Two things dominated the financial world this 2018: political turmoil and fears of slowing economic growth.
The first was quite foreseeable with Brexit and Trump´s victory in the US but the second dawned on markets like a cold shower in the second half of the year.
It was not far ago when EU’s growth hit record highs, according to Markit,
with business activity shrinking to its lowest pace of growth in over four years in December.
It was back in March, when the Fed pulled the trigger for the first time,
that markets players were rushing into the greenback pricing in a long-lasting cycle of rate hikes amid solid economic developments in the US.
Even the ECB was confident enough to announce the end of QE. But when and why things took such turn to the worst?
EUR/USD Technical outlook
Following a strong rally in January that extended into the first week of February taking the pair up to 1.2554, it entered a selling spiral that found a bottom in November at 1.1215. Now trading roughly 200 pips’ above this last,
the pair has managed to close only one month with some relevant gains in its way down. December seems poised also to end positively, but with the pair at current levels, a relevant recovery is still out of the picture. The 23.6% retracement of the yearly decline comes at 1.1530,
while the 38.2% retracement of the same slump is located at 1.1725,
which means that the pair would need to escalate 300 pips and reach levels not seen since last August to have chances of a more sustainable recovery. The 61.8% retracement of the same rally comes at 1.2040.